CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
RICE 20.4%79.6% UNT
Projected margin
UNT by 13.1
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
RICE 5 to UNT 32
Win probability
UNT 79.6%

Current team profiles

Rice
North Texas

When Rice has the ball

Passing

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#136
UNT defense
#98
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
0.25
#98
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#100
UNT defense
#56
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.02
#56
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNT defense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE offense
#108
UNT defense
#78
Success rates
39%
#108
41%
#78
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#127
0.08
#76
EPA / play
1.11
#125
1.24
#81
Explosiveness
17%
#110
17%
#52
Havoc

When North Texas has the ball

Passing

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#34
UNT offense
#12
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.49
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#102
UNT offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.13
#102
0.14
#55
Rush EPA

Drive success

UNT offense
Higher-ranked profile
RICE defense
#65
UNT offense
#30
Success rates
40%
#65
48%
#30
Success rate
More metrics
0.09
#84
0.30
#18
EPA / play
1.33
#112
1.33
#21
Explosiveness
15%
#79
10%
#12
Havoc

Current key players

Rice
QBJacurri Brown
403 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
77.297/729
RBCarson Morgan
54 yds · 0 TD · 7.7 YPC
87.520/1044
SDaveon Hook
3 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.4
Coverage
87.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
52.8
Missed tackles
2
81.246/2969
SMichael Amey III
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
71.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.5108/2969
LBBeau Barton
9 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
75.7164/1796
WRBarry Jackson Jr.
7 rec · 102 yds · 1 TD
70.2262/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Colten Cole · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Cole has been out of lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Davis Lane · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Lane is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Fresno State on Saturday.

  • Preston Zinter · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Zinter is laid up with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

  • James Falk · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Falk is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Fresno State on Saturday, September 26th.

North Texas
QBTayven Jackson
1510 yds · 10 TD · 4 INT
90.223/729
TEJerious Singletary
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
81.9
Penalties
0
82.819/1017
RBJahiem White
571 yds · 8 TD · 6.7 YPC
81.263/1044
WRTJ Chukwurah
7 rec · 92 yds · 1 TD
80.454/2069
CBKeshawn Davila
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.5
Coverage
79.7
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
16
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
4
78.488/2969
WRKyle Koch
11 rec · 163 yds · 2 TD
78.074/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Corri Milliner · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Milliner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Navy on October 24th.

  • James Tyre · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Tyre is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

  • Drew Clemens · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Clemens is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

  • Victor Aderungboye · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Aderungboye is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Navy on October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

RICE
UNT
vs
Offense
77.2
#74 of 138
QB
90.2
#22 of 138
83.0
#20 of 138
RB
77.8
#48 of 138
67.7
#113 of 138
WR
77.0
#27 of 138
64.6
#93 of 138
TE
82.8
#19 of 138
64.6
#99 of 138
OL
64.9
#96 of 138
Defense
73.2
#67 of 138
DL
76.3
#42 of 138
69.2
#110 of 138
LB
76.4
#49 of 138
71.2
#80 of 138
DB
74.2
#43 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Rice
opponent
North Texas
H+28.0
HCU#213
+49.0H
A-4.9
FAU#88
+10.9H
H-7.7
TULN#85
-2.5A
H-2.0
UTSA#73
-5.2A
H-0.2
TLSA#98
+1.0A