AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#127Away
Rice
0-0 · AVR 28.9
22p
#80Home
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
36p
RICE 16%84% UNT
Spread
UNT -14.7
Total
58
Moneyline
RICE+529UNT-529
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← RICE advantageevenUNT advantage →
RICE throw
UNT +22
RICE run
RICE backs #76
UNT +13
UNT throw
UNT +37
UNT run
UNT +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when RICE runs
Quinton Jackson
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · RICE
MLB · UNT
65.9
58.9
RICE +7
when RICE throws
Davis Lane
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · RICE
CB1 · UNT
48.3
73.0
UNT +25
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Ahran Ogbor
X · UNT
CB1 · RICE
56.0
55.9
dead even
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Stone Combs
RB · UNT
MLB · RICE
51.6
55.5
RICE +4
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Neto Umeozulu
vs
Chibby Nwajuaku
LT · UNT
EDGE · RICE
42.5
62.7
RICE +20
off the edge· hunting Ochoa
Peyton Farmer
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · RICE
EDGE · UNT
22.1
70.7
UNT +49

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Rice
RBQuinton Jackson
65.971/514
SAhran Ogbor
55.9595/1427
LBStone Combs
55.5381/878
QBGael Ochoa
52.6129/308
WRDavis Lane
48.3364/777
LBAustin Harnetiaux
41.9637/878
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Rice
opponent
North Texas
away-8.1
Florida Atlantic#108
+9.1home
home-8.0
Tulane#88
-0.8away
home-2.1
Tulsa#110
+5.1away
home-14.3
UTSA#62
-7.2away
home+22.4
Houston Christian
+23.6home

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUNT +14.795% interval: -9.2 to 38.680% interval: -2.7 to 32.1-3+32RICE wins 16%UNT wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UNT 35–21 RICEUNT 32–46 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 35–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNT 39–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNT 42–35 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 46–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 49–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 53–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 56–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 60–18 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 28–42 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 32–39 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 35–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 39–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 42–28 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 46–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 49–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 53–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 56–14 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 25–39 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 28–35 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 32–32 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 35–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 39–25 RICE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNT 42–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNT 46–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 49–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 53–11 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 21–35 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 25–32 RICE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNT 28–28 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 32–25 RICE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNT 35–21 RICE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNT 39–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 42–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNT 46–11 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 49–7 RICE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNT 18–32 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 21–28 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 25–25 RICE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNT 28–21 RICE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNT 32–18 RICE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNT 35–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNT 39–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNT 42–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 46–4 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 14–28 RICE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNT 18–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNT 21–21 RICE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUNT 25–18 RICE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNT 28–14 RICE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNT 32–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNT 35–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 39–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNT 42–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNT 11–25 RICE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNT 14–21 RICE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNT 18–18 RICE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNT 21–14 RICE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNT 25–11 RICE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNT 28–7 RICE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNT 32–4 RICE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNT 35–0 RICE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalRICE +14PKUNT +14UNT +28UNT +42margin →