AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Fri Nov 13 · 1:00 AM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
29p
#78Home
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
30p
MEM 47%53% USF
Spread
USF -1.4
Total
59
Moneyline
MEM+114USF-114
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenUSF advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
USF +9
MEM run
even
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
MEM +33
USF run
USF backs #74
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · USF
EDGE · MEM
97.0
86.2
USF +11
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Ian Foster
X · USF
CB1 · MEM
56.0
90.2
MEM +34
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · MEM
EDGE · USF
79.2
65.2
MEM +14
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Mike Montgomery
RB · USF
MLB · MEM
60.0
71.4
MEM +11
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Tavin Ward
X · MEM
CB1 · USF
60.4
70.7
USF +10
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · MEM
MLB · USF
55.7
73.7
USF +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Memphis
opponent
South Florida
home+4.5
East Carolina#77
-1.7away
home+13.7
Army#118
+7.5away
away+0.9
Tulane#88
+4.7home
home+12.9
UAB#121
+11.7home
home+11.4
Temple#113
+10.3home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +1.495% interval: -22.5 to 25.380% interval: -16 to 18.7-16+19MEM wins 47%USF wins 53%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 28–28 MEMUSF 25–53 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 49–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 53–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 21–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 46–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 49–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 18–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 42–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 46–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 14–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSF 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSF 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUSF 39–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSF 42–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 11–39 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSF 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSF 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSF 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSF 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSF 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSF 35–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSF 39–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 7–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSF 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSF 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSF 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSF 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSF 32–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSF 35–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSF 4–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSF 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSF 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSF 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSF 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSF 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSF 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSF 28–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSF 32–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +28MEM +14PKUSF +14USF +28margin →