AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#80Away
North Texas
0-0 · AVR 46.7
28p
#62Home
UTSA
0-0 · AVR 50.5
35p
UNT 31%69% UTSA
Spread
UTSA -7.2
Total
63
Moneyline
UNT+221UTSA-221
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNT advantageevenUTSA advantage →
UNT throw
UNT +9
UNT run
UTSA linebackers #18
UTSA +33
UTSA throw
UTSA protection #91
UTSA +18
UTSA run
UTSA backs #44
UTSA +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTSA throws
AJ Wilson Jr.
vs
Graham Gillespie
X · UTSA
CB1 · UNT
72.9
73.0
dead even
when UTSA runs
Will Henderson III
vs
Aaron Alexander
RB · UTSA
MLB · UNT
74.5
58.9
UTSA +16
when UNT runs
Brendon Haygood
vs
Camron Cooper
RB · UNT
MLB · UTSA
51.6
81.6
UTSA +30
when UNT throws
Andy Jean
vs
Joel Rogers
X · UNT
CB1 · UTSA
56.0
76.0
UTSA +20
off the edge· hunting McCown
Jonah Miller
vs
Udoka Ezeani
LT · UTSA
EDGE · UNT
48.7
70.7
UNT +22
over the middle
Brandon Young Jr.
vs
Julian Knox Sr.
TE · UTSA
FS · UNT
58.2
52.4
UTSA +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Texas
SGraham Gillespie
73.0176/1427
QBTayven Jackson
61.064/308
LBAaron Alexander
58.9314/878
CBChase Canada
57.8537/1427
WRAndy Jean
56.0158/777
WRShandon King
55.1177/777
UTSA
LBCamron Cooper
81.644/878
LBElijah Baldwin
76.393/878
SJoel Rogers
76.0139/1427
RBWill Henderson III
74.536/514
WRAJ Wilson Jr.
72.940/777
QBOwen McCown
69.141/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Texas
opponent
UTSA
away+5.1
Tulsa#110
+14.7home
away-0.4
Navy#82
+9.2home
away-0.8
Tulane#88
+3.9away
away-5.0
Texas State#59
-0.4away
home+9.1
Florida Atlantic#108
+8.7away
home+14.7
Rice#127
+14.3away
home+11.2
UAB#121
+10.9away

Projected margin

80% between -10 and 25
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTSA +7.295% interval: -16.7 to 31.180% interval: -10.2 to 24.5-10+25UNT wins 31%UTSA wins 69%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTSA 35–28 UNTUTSA 32–53 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 35–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTSA 42–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 46–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 49–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTSA 53–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 56–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTSA 60–25 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 28–49 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 32–46 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTSA 39–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTSA 42–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTSA 46–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 49–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 53–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 56–21 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 25–46 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–42 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–39 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 42–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 46–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 49–21 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 53–18 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–42 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 25–39 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 28–35 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 32–32 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 35–28 UNT neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTSA 39–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 46–18 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 49–14 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 18–39 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 21–35 UNT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTSA 25–32 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 28–28 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 32–25 UNT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTSA 35–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTSA 39–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUTSA 42–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTSA 46–11 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 14–35 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTSA 18–32 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 21–28 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 25–25 UNT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 28–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTSA 32–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTSA 35–14 UNT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTSA 42–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTSA 11–32 UNT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTSA 14–28 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTSA 18–25 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 21–21 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 25–18 UNT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTSA 28–14 UNT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTSA 32–11 UNT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTSA 35–7 UNT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTSA 39–4 UNT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalUNT +21UNT +7UTSA +7UTSA +21UTSA +35margin →