AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#78Away
South Florida
0-0 · AVR 47.2
33p
#108Home
Florida Atlantic
0-0 · AVR 36.6
29p
USF 62%38% FAU
Spread
USF -4.6
Total
62
Moneyline
USF-166FAU+166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USF advantageevenFAU advantage →
USF throw
USF QB #111USF protection #14
even
USF run
USF backs #74
USF +19
FAU throw
FAU +26
FAU run
FAU +5

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bradford
Ethan Green
vs
Blake Burris
LT · USF
EDGE · FAU
97.0
81.1
USF +16
when FAU throws
Easton Messer
vs
Tavin Ward
X · FAU
CB1 · USF
67.8
70.7
dead even
off the edge· hunting Veltkamp
Vincent Fiacable
vs
Jahari Grant
LT · FAU
EDGE · USF
71.7
65.2
FAU +7
when FAU runs
Kaden Shields-Dutton
vs
MarShon Oxley
RB · FAU
MLB · USF
60.5
73.7
USF +13
when USF runs
Alvon Isaac
vs
Joseph Sipp Jr.
RB · USF
MLB · FAU
60.0
71.4
FAU +11
when USF throws
Mudia Reuben
vs
Jay Crable
X · USF
CB1 · FAU
56.0
67.8
FAU +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Florida
LBMarShon Oxley
73.7114/878
STavin Ward
70.7218/1427
LBShamar Meikle
67.0191/878
CBJair Murphy
65.9337/1427
TEEvan Dangler
60.651/287
RBAlvon Isaac
60.0109/514
Florida Atlantic
LBJoseph Sipp Jr.
71.4127/878
QBCaden Veltkamp
68.345/308
WREaston Messer
67.865/777
DBJay Crable
67.8283/1427
WRDominique Henry
66.376/777
DBJosh Roberts
60.8463/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Florida
opponent
Florida Atlantic
home+21.2
Florida International#109
+2.7home
away-1.7
East Carolina#77
-8.8away
away+7.5
Army#118
+0.5away
away-6.6
UTSA#62
-8.7home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSF +4.695% interval: -28.5 to 19.380% interval: -22 to 12.8-22+13USF wins 62%FAU wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USF 35–28 FAUFAU 25–60 USF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFAU 28–56 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 32–53 USF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFAU 35–49 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 39–46 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 42–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 46–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 49–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 53–32 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 21–56 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 25–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 28–49 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 32–46 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 35–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 39–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 42–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFAU 46–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 49–28 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 18–53 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 21–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 25–46 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 28–42 USF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFAU 32–39 USF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 35–35 USF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFAU 39–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 42–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFAU 46–25 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 14–49 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 18–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 21–42 USF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFAU 25–39 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 28–35 USF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFAU 32–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 35–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFAU 39–25 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 42–21 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 11–46 USF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFAU 14–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFAU 18–39 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 21–35 USF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFAU 25–32 USF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFAU 28–28 USF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFAU 32–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFAU 35–21 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 39–18 USF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFAU 7–42 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 11–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFAU 14–35 USF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFAU 18–32 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 21–28 USF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFAU 25–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFAU 28–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFAU 32–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFAU 35–14 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 4–39 USF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFAU 7–35 USF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFAU 11–32 USF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFAU 14–28 USF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFAU 18–25 USF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFAU 21–21 USF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFAU 25–18 USF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFAU 28–14 USF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFAU 32–11 USF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes84777063564942totalUSF +35USF +21USF +7FAU +7FAU +21margin →