AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 PM
#63Away
Memphis
0-0 · AVR 50.4
29p
#82Home
Navy
0-0 · AVR 46.3
28p
MEM 53%47% NAVY
Spread
MEM -1.3
Total
57
Moneyline
MEM-112NAVY+112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MEM advantageevenNAVY advantage →
MEM throw
MEM QB #126MEM protection #48
MEM +23
MEM run
NAVY front #140NAVY linebackers #60
MEM +18
NAVY throw
NAVY QB #104NAVY protection #4
MEM +31
NAVY run
NAVY +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Gutierrez
Ben Reiland
vs
J'Mond Tapp
LT · NAVY
EDGE · MEM
101.4
86.2
NAVY +15
when NAVY throws
Joshua Guerin
vs
Ian Foster
X · NAVY
CB1 · MEM
54.7
90.2
MEM +35
off the edge· hunting Noland
Brian Grant
vs
Griffen Willis
LT · MEM
EDGE · NAVY
79.2
57.0
MEM +22
when MEM runs
Manny Covey
vs
MarcAnthony Parker
RB · MEM
MLB · NAVY
55.7
74.9
NAVY +19
over the middle
Jordan Collins
vs
Khalil Foster
TE · NAVY
FS · MEM
56.9
62.7
MEM +6
when MEM throws
Brady Kluse
vs
Matthew Seliga
X · MEM
CB1 · NAVY
60.4
53.9
MEM +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Memphis
SIan Foster
90.210/1427
CBAnthony Richard Jr.
87.922/1427
SAhmere Foster
79.694/1427
LBMike Montgomery
71.4130/878
LBJayden Parrish
62.8245/878
WRBrady Kluse
60.4113/777
Navy
LBMarcAnthony Parker
74.9107/878
LBColeman Cauley
69.1160/878
TEJordan Collins
56.979/287
WRJoshua Guerin
54.7182/777
SMatthew Seliga
53.9653/1427
LBJob Grant
53.6411/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Memphis
opponent
Navy
home+12.9
UAB#121
+4.1away
home+13.7
Army#118
+7.4neutral
home+11.4
Temple#113
+7.7home
away+14.7
Charlotte#135
+11.0away

Projected margin

80% between -19 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMEM +1.395% interval: -25.2 to 22.680% interval: -18.6 to 16.1-19+16MEM wins 53%NAVY wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NAVY 28–28 MEMNAVY 25–53 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 28–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 32–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNAVY 35–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 39–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 42–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 46–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 49–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNAVY 53–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNAVY 21–49 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 25–46 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 28–42 MEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNAVY 32–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 35–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 39–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 42–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNAVY 46–25 MEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNAVY 49–21 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 18–46 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 21–42 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 25–39 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 28–35 MEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNAVY 32–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNAVY 35–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNAVY 39–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 42–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 46–18 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–42 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 18–39 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 21–35 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 25–32 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–28 MEM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNAVY 32–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 35–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 39–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 42–14 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 11–39 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 14–35 MEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNAVY 18–32 MEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNAVY 21–28 MEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNAVY 25–25 MEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNAVY 28–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 32–18 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 35–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNAVY 39–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 7–35 MEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNAVY 11–32 MEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNAVY 14–28 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 18–25 MEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNAVY 21–21 MEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNAVY 25–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNAVY 28–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNAVY 32–11 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 35–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 4–32 MEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNAVY 7–28 MEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNAVY 11–25 MEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNAVY 14–21 MEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNAVY 18–18 MEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNAVY 21–14 MEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNAVY 25–11 MEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNAVY 28–7 MEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNAVY 32–4 MEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalMEM +28MEM +14PKNAVY +14NAVY +28margin →