AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:30 PM
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
27p
#120Home
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
27p
WKU 49%51% NEV
Spread
NEV -0.1
Total
54
Moneyline
WKU+105NEV-105
Against the market
NEV +2.4line WKU -2.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenNEV advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
NEV +11
WKU run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +32
NEV throw
NEV WR #150WKU pass rush #101
WKU +31
NEV run
NEV backs #144
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · NEV
CB1 · WKU
36.8
87.0
WKU +50
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · WKU
CB1 · NEV
57.8
64.8
NEV +7
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Alec Johnson
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · WKU
EDGE · NEV
23.2
97.8
NEV +75
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · WKU
MLB · NEV
56.8
54.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Zeiqui Lawton
LT · NEV
EDGE · WKU
47.9
61.1
WKU +13
over the middle
Griffin Reimer
vs
Zavien Abercrombie
TE · WKU
FS · NEV
58.1
49.3
WKU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +0.1MKT95% interval: -28 to 3180% interval: -18 to 20-18+20WKU wins 49%NEV wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEV 28–28 WKUNEV 25–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 28–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 32–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 35–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 49–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 53–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 21–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 25–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 28–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEV 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 46–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 49–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 18–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 21–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 25–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 42–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 46–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 14–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 18–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 21–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesNEV 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 39–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 42–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 11–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 14–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 18–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEV 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 35–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 39–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 7–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 11–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 14–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 32–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 35–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 4–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 7–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 11–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEV 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEV 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 28–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 32–4 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWKU +28WKU +14PKNEV +14NEV +28margin →