AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
#120Away
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
25p
#124Home
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
26p
NEV 46%54% MTSU
Spread
MTSU -1.6
Total
51
Moneyline
NEV+118MTSU-118
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NEV advantageevenMTSU advantage →
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
NEV +15
NEV run
NEV backs #144
MTSU +9
MTSU throw
NEV +32
MTSU run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · MTSU
EDGE · NEV
32.3
97.8
NEV +65
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · NEV
EDGE · MTSU
47.9
79.4
MTSU +32
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · NEV
MLB · MTSU
47.0
79.4
MTSU +32
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · MTSU
CB1 · NEV
48.1
64.8
NEV +17
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · MTSU
MLB · NEV
51.1
54.5
NEV +3
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Zavien Abercrombie
TE · MTSU
FS · NEV
42.5
49.3
NEV +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMTSU +1.695% interval: -22.4 to 25.580% interval: -15.8 to 18.9-16+19NEV wins 46%MTSU wins 54%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MTSU 25–25 NEVMTSU 21–49 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 28–42 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 32–39 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 35–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMTSU 39–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 42–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 46–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 49–21 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 18–46 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 21–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 25–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 28–35 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 32–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMTSU 39–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 42–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 46–18 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 14–42 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 18–39 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 21–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 25–32 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 28–28 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 32–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 35–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 39–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 42–14 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 11–39 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 14–35 NEV neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 18–32 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 21–28 NEV neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMTSU 25–25 NEV neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 28–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 32–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 35–14 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 39–11 NEV neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 7–35 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMTSU 11–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 14–28 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 18–25 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–21 NEV neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMTSU 25–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 28–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 32–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 35–7 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 4–32 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 7–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 11–25 NEV neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 14–21 NEV neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMTSU 18–18 NEV neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 25–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 28–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 32–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 0–28 NEV neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 4–25 NEV neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 7–21 NEV neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 11–18 NEV neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 14–14 NEV neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 18–11 NEV neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 21–7 NEV neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 25–4 NEV neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 28–0 NEV neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalNEV +28NEV +14PKMTSU +14MTSU +28margin →