Passing
NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF offense
- #132
- NEV defense
- #82
EPA comparison
-0.07
#132
0.18
#82
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 10:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
AF 29.3%70.7% NEV
- Projected margin
- NEV by 7.5
- Projected total
- 51
- 80% outcome range
- AF 10 to NEV 27
- Win probability
- NEV 70.7%
FinalAF 36 · NEV 33model had +7.5, off by 10.5
Current team profiles
Air ForceNevadaWhen Air Force has the ball
Rushing
AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF offense
- #6
- NEV defense
- #102
EPA comparison
0.29
#6
0.13
#102
Rush EPA
Drive success
AF offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF offense
- #25
- NEV defense
- #60
Success rates
49%
#25
39%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#39
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.03
#136
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
6%
#1
13%
#122
Havoc
When Nevada has the ball
Passing
AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF defense
- #20
- NEV offense
- #122
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.02
#122
Pass EPA
Rushing
NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF defense
- #47
- NEV offense
- #35
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.19
#35
Rush EPA
Drive success
AF defense
Higher-ranked profile
- AF defense
- #29
- NEV offense
- #87
Success rates
35%
#29
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
-0.02
#37
0.10
#87
EPA / play
1.29
#101
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
14%
#97
14%
#45
Havoc
Current key players
Air ForceQBLiam Szarka
296 yds · 1 TD · 4 INT
81.862/729
LBBlake Fletcher
44 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 90.3
- Coverage
- 83.1
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 19
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 1
90.014/1796
DBMax Mustell
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.0
- Coverage
- 89.3
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 14
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 5
87.417/2969
WRMason Hayes
12 rush yds · 0 TD · 1 car
77.579/2069
RBRocco Conti
187 yds · 1 TD · 5.3 YPC
72.3251/1044
LBIsaac Hubert
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.3
- Coverage
- 64.0
- Pressures
- 8
- Pass-rush snaps
- 83
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
71.3320/1796
Availability reports · 2
- Liam Szarka · QBout · 2026-10-05
Szarka is battling with a lower leg injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Griffin Stalfort · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Stalfort is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play Saturday's game against Rebels , October 17th.
NevadaQBAJ Bianco
116 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
71.3145/729
DBTajean Stallworth
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 49.9
- Coverage
- 52.3
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 91.7
- Missed tackles
- 1
90.77/2969
TETrace Estes
1 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Penalties
- 0
89.93/1017
WRDon Henry
1 rec · 28 yds · 0 TD
82.338/2069
LBEJ Smith
56 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.3
- Coverage
- 63.4
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 11
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
80.874/1796
RBHerschel Turner
234 yds · 3 TD · 6.0 YPC
77.1131/1044
Position units
Position-unit comparison
AFAir Force
NEVNevada
vs
Offense
81.8
#53 of 138
QB
Quarterback
71.3
#98 of 138
72.0
#106 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.4
#61 of 138
71.2
#73 of 138
WR
Receivers
69.2
#91 of 138
68.6
#74 of 138
TE
Tight ends
89.9
#3 of 138
74.7
#18 of 138
OL
Offensive line
65.0
#94 of 138
Defense
69.6
#112 of 138
DL
Defensive line
67.7
#126 of 138
76.9
#45 of 138
LB
Linebackers
74.5
#65 of 138
69.0
#111 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.7
#60 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Air Force
opponent
Nevada
Aaway+21.0
NIUNorthern Illinois#145+5.2Aaway
Hhome-3.3
UNLVUNLV#83-12.3Aaway
Hhome-6.0
NDSUNorth Dakota State#61-14.8Aaway
Hhome+11.5
UTEPUTEP#170+17.0Aaway
Hhome+7.2
SJSUSan José State#123+3.6Hhome
Aaway-15.1
UNMNew Mexico#33-13.4Hhome