AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#98Away
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
31p
#120Home
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
27p
AF 62%38% NEV
Spread
AF -4.6
Total
58
Moneyline
AF-164NEV+164
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AF advantageevenNEV advantage →
AF throw
AF +28
AF run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
AF +32
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
NEV +20
NEV run
NEV backs #144
NEV +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · AF
EDGE · NEV
98.9
97.8
dead even
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · AF
CB1 · NEV
59.7
64.8
NEV +5
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · AF
MLB · NEV
68.8
54.5
AF +14
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · NEV
MLB · AF
47.0
62.5
AF +15
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Jayden Oquendo
LT · NEV
EDGE · AF
47.9
53.4
AF +5
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Max Mustell
X · NEV
CB1 · AF
36.8
53.7
AF +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Air Force
opponent
Nevada
home+14.4
UTEP#133
+2.2away
home+0.2
North Dakota State#81
-11.9away
home-3.9
UNLV#70
-16.0away
away+10.4
Northern Illinois#134
+3.3away
home+11.3
San José State#123
+4.2home
away-2.7
New Mexico#86
-4.8home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +4.695% interval: -28.5 to 19.380% interval: -22 to 12.8-22+13AF wins 62%NEV wins 38%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 32–25 NEVNEV 21–56 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 25–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 28–49 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 32–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 35–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 39–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 42–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 46–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 49–28 AF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 18–53 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 21–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 25–46 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 28–42 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 32–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 35–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 39–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 42–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 46–25 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 14–49 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 18–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 21–42 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 25–39 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 28–35 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 32–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 35–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 39–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 42–21 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 11–46 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 14–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 18–39 AF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 21–35 AF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 25–32 AF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 28–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 32–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 35–21 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 39–18 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 7–42 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 11–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 14–35 AF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 18–32 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 21–28 AF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 25–25 AF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 28–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 32–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 35–14 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 4–39 AF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 7–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 11–32 AF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 14–28 AF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 18–25 AF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEV 21–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 25–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 28–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 32–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 0–35 AF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNEV 4–32 AF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 7–28 AF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 11–25 AF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 14–21 AF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 18–18 AF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 21–14 AF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 25–11 AF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 28–7 AF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalAF +35AF +21AF +7NEV +7NEV +21margin →