CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 11:59 PM ET
Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy
Forecast win probability
SJSU 46.3%53.7% HAW
Projected margin
HAW by 1.8
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
SJSU 18 to HAW 21
Win probability
HAW 53.7%
FinalSJSU 20 · HAW 16model had +1.8, off by 5.8

Current team profiles

San José State
Hawai'i

When San José State has the ball

Passing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#62
HAW defense
#89
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.20
#89
Pass EPA

Rushing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#113
HAW defense
#128
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.21
#128
Rush EPA

Drive success

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#102
HAW defense
#125
Success rates
40%
#102
46%
#125
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#89
0.22
#125
EPA / play
1.14
#113
1.17
#41
Explosiveness
15%
#79
13%
#109
Havoc

When Hawai'i has the ball

Passing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#52
HAW offense
#114
EPA comparison
0.09
#52
0.07
#114
Pass EPA

Rushing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#98
HAW offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.11
#98
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#107
HAW offense
#115
Success rates
44%
#107
39%
#115
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#60
0.02
#118
EPA / play
1.05
#9
1.13
#118
Explosiveness
15%
#84
17%
#112
Havoc

Current key players

San José State
QBLuke Weaver
1278 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
65.7207/729
SPierce Walker
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
0
77.999/2969
RBJabari Bates
487 yds · 0 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.8116/1044
SCharles Cox III
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.3263/2969
STuli Tagovailoa-Amosa
23 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
73.1273/2969
WRCooper Hoch
19 rec · 285 yds · 3 TD
72.5181/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Cooper Hoch · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hoch is hampered by a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Miners on Saturday, October 17th.

Hawai'i
QBMicah Alejado
1361 yds · 4 TD · 3 INT
60.9261/729
LBJulian Smith
5 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
81.266/1796
LBMatteus Ioane
7 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
81.5
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
80.082/1796
RBDeVon Rice
276 yds · 3 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.3127/1044
WRTama Uiliata
27 rec · 245 yds · 1 TD
76.5101/2069
DBJeremiah Hughes
11 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
73.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
64
Passer rating allowed
71.8
Missed tackles
2
74.4213/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Robert Haynes IV · WRout · 2026-09-03

    Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Pofele Ashlock · WRout · 2026-10-05

    Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Carson Brown · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tre' Griffiths · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anthony Hickman · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Isaac Jaramilla-Phe · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against Lobos on Saturday, October 17t

  • Oakie Salave'a · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salave'a is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Lobos on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SJSU
HAW
vs
Offense
65.7
#117 of 138
QB
60.9
#129 of 138
71.3
#108 of 138
RB
75.5
#69 of 138
68.2
#105 of 138
WR
70.1
#78 of 138
51.2
#138 of 138
TE
72.7
#46 of 138
61.4
#125 of 138
OL
58.5
#137 of 138
Defense
82.7
#6 of 138
DL
72.8
#73 of 138
67.2
#124 of 138
LB
78.9
#27 of 138
73.0
#56 of 138
DB
68.5
#115 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

San José State
opponent
Hawai'i
H-3.0
WYO#126
-17.0A
H-7.9
UNLV#83
-15.0H
H+9.6
NIU#145
+6.7A
A-3.6
NEV#109
-1.1A
H-14.4
UNM#33
-11.9H
H-10.4
NDSU#61
-7.9H
A+1.6
UTEP#170
+4.1A