AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
21p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
34p
SJSU 20%80% HAW
Spread
HAW -12.7
Total
55
Moneyline
SJSU+410HAW-410
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenHAW advantage →
SJSU throw
HAW +19
SJSU run
HAW +13
HAW throw
HAW protection #102SJSU pass rush #78
HAW +31
HAW run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · SJSU
CB1 · HAW
52.8
80.9
HAW +28
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · HAW
MLB · SJSU
61.2
58.0
HAW +3
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · HAW
EDGE · SJSU
44.1
73.0
SJSU +29
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · HAW
CB1 · SJSU
57.9
53.8
HAW +4
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · SJSU
MLB · HAW
49.8
56.5
HAW +7
over the middle
Devon Tauaefa
vs
Runye Norton
TE · HAW
FS · SJSU
48.0
36.7
HAW +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San José State
opponent
Hawai'i
home-12.7
UNLV#70
+7.7home
away-4.2
Nevada#120
+6.0away
away+0.6
UTEP#133
+10.7away
home-6.5
New Mexico#86
+3.6home
home-8.6
North Dakota State#81
+1.5home
home+6.6
Northern Illinois#134
+11.8away
home+0.1
Wyoming#119
+5.2away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +12.795% interval: -11.2 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30.1-5+30SJSU wins 20%HAW wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 35–21 SJSUHAW 32–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 35–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 39–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 56–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesHAW 60–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 28–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 32–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 35–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 53–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 56–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 25–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 28–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 32–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesHAW 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 49–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 53–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 25–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 28–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesHAW 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 46–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 49–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 18–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 21–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 25–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 42–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 46–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 14–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 18–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 21–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesHAW 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 39–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 42–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 11–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 14–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 18–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesHAW 21–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 25–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 28–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 32–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 35–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSJSU +14PKHAW +14HAW +28HAW +42margin →