CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SJSU 40.7%59.3% NEV
Projected margin
NEV by 3.6
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
SJSU 15 to NEV 22
Win probability
NEV 59.3%

Current team profiles

San José State
Nevada

When San José State has the ball

Passing

SJSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#62
NEV defense
#82
EPA comparison
0.25
#62
0.18
#82
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#113
NEV defense
#102
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.13
#102
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU offense
#102
NEV defense
#60
Success rates
40%
#102
39%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#89
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.14
#113
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
15%
#79
13%
#122
Havoc

When Nevada has the ball

Passing

SJSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#52
NEV offense
#122
EPA comparison
0.09
#52
0.02
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#98
NEV offense
#35
EPA comparison
0.11
#98
0.19
#35
Rush EPA

Drive success

NEV offense
Higher-ranked profile
SJSU defense
#107
NEV offense
#87
Success rates
44%
#107
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#60
0.10
#87
EPA / play
1.05
#9
1.25
#57
Explosiveness
15%
#84
14%
#45
Havoc

Current key players

San José State
QBLuke Weaver
1278 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
65.7207/729
SPierce Walker
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.8
Coverage
80.0
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
71.5
Missed tackles
0
77.999/2969
RBJabari Bates
487 yds · 0 TD · 4.7 YPC
77.8116/1044
SCharles Cox III
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.3
Coverage
72.7
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.3263/2969
STuli Tagovailoa-Amosa
23 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.1
Coverage
71.0
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
54
Passer rating allowed
55.6
Missed tackles
5
73.1273/2969
WRCooper Hoch
19 rec · 285 yds · 3 TD
72.5181/2069
Availability reports · 1
  • Cooper Hoch · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hoch is hampered by a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Miners on Saturday, October 17th.

Nevada
QBAJ Bianco
116 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
71.3145/729
DBTajean Stallworth
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
49.9
Coverage
52.3
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
91.7
Missed tackles
1
90.77/2969
TETrace Estes
1 rec · 37 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Penalties
0
89.93/1017
WRDon Henry
1 rec · 28 yds · 0 TD
82.338/2069
LBEJ Smith
56 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.3
Coverage
63.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
80.874/1796
RBHerschel Turner
234 yds · 3 TD · 6.0 YPC
77.1131/1044
Position units

Position-unit comparison

SJSU
NEV
vs
Offense
65.7
#117 of 138
QB
71.3
#98 of 138
71.3
#108 of 138
RB
76.4
#61 of 138
68.2
#105 of 138
WR
69.2
#91 of 138
51.2
#138 of 138
TE
89.9
#3 of 138
61.4
#125 of 138
OL
65.0
#94 of 138
Defense
82.7
#6 of 138
DL
67.7
#126 of 138
67.2
#124 of 138
LB
74.5
#65 of 138
73.0
#56 of 138
DB
72.7
#60 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

San José State
opponent
Nevada
A+1.6
UTEP#170
+17.0A
H-7.9
UNLV#83
-12.3A
H-10.4
NDSU#61
-14.8A
H+9.6
NIU#145
+5.2A
A-7.2
AF#74
-3.0H
A+4.0
HAW#135
+1.1H
H-14.4
UNM#33
-13.4H