AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
24p
#120Home
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
29p
SJSU 39%61% NEV
Spread
NEV -4.2
Total
53
Moneyline
SJSU+156NEV-156
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenNEV advantage →
SJSU throw
NEV +26
SJSU run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +29
NEV throw
NEV WR #150SJSU pass rush #78
even
NEV run
NEV backs #144
SJSU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · NEV
EDGE · SJSU
47.9
73.0
SJSU +25
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · SJSU
CB1 · NEV
52.8
64.8
NEV +12
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · NEV
MLB · SJSU
47.0
58.0
SJSU +11
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · SJSU
MLB · NEV
49.8
54.5
NEV +5
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · NEV
CB1 · SJSU
36.8
53.8
SJSU +17
over the middle
Jayden O'Rourke
vs
Runye Norton
TE · NEV
FS · SJSU
35.3
36.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San José State
opponent
Nevada
away-11.3
Air Force#98
-4.6home
away-12.7
Hawai'i#90
-6.0home
home-12.7
UNLV#70
-16.0away
home-8.6
North Dakota State#81
-11.9away
home+6.6
Northern Illinois#134
+3.3away
home-6.5
New Mexico#86
-4.8home
away+0.6
UTEP#133
+2.2away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNEV +4.295% interval: -19.7 to 28.180% interval: -13.2 to 21.6-13+22SJSU wins 39%NEV wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NEV 32–25 SJSUNEV 28–49 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 32–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 35–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 39–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 56–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNEV 25–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 28–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 32–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 35–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 53–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 21–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 25–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 28–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 32–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 49–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 18–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 21–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 25–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 28–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 46–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 14–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 18–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 21–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 25–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNEV 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNEV 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNEV 42–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 11–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 14–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNEV 18–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 21–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNEV 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 39–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 7–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 11–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 14–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 18–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNEV 21–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 25–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 28–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 32–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNEV 35–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalSJSU +21SJSU +7NEV +7NEV +21NEV +35margin →