AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sun Nov 15
#123Away
San José State
0-1 · AVR 30.7
25p
#98Home
Air Force
0-0 · AVR 40.0
36p
SJSU 22%78% AF
Spread
AF -11.3
Total
61
Moneyline
SJSU+362AF-362
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SJSU advantageevenAF advantage →
SJSU throw
SJSU +21
SJSU run
even
AF throw
SJSU pass rush #78
AF +57
AF run
AF +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Szarka
Henry Rickels
vs
Ian Shewell
LT · AF
EDGE · SJSU
98.9
73.0
AF +26
when AF runs
Owen Allen
vs
Ethan Powell
RB · AF
MLB · SJSU
68.8
58.0
AF +11
when AF throws
Jonah Dawson
vs
Isaiah Buxton
X · AF
CB1 · SJSU
59.7
53.8
AF +6
when SJSU runs
Jabari Bates
vs
Isaac Hubert
RB · SJSU
MLB · AF
49.8
62.5
AF +13
when SJSU throws
Dominique McKenzie
vs
Max Mustell
X · SJSU
CB1 · AF
52.8
53.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
San José State
LBEthan Powell
58.0334/878
CBIsaiah Buxton
53.8656/1427
LBCayden Woolwine
53.6413/878
WRDominique McKenzie
52.8237/777
RBJabari Bates
49.8291/514
QBLuke Weaver
48.9176/308
Air Force
QBLiam Szarka
83.814/308
RBOwen Allen
68.863/514
LBIsaac Hubert
62.5248/878
WRJonah Dawson
59.7118/777
DBMax Mustell
53.7664/1427
QBMaguire Martin
53.5112/308

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
San José State
opponent
Air Force
away+0.6
UTEP#133
+14.4home
away-4.2
Nevada#120
+4.6away
home-12.7
UNLV#70
-3.9home
home-8.6
North Dakota State#81
+0.2home
home+6.6
Northern Illinois#134
+10.4away
home+0.1
Wyoming#119
+3.9away
home-6.5
New Mexico#86
-2.7away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAF +11.395% interval: -12.6 to 35.280% interval: -6.1 to 28.7-6+29SJSU wins 22%AF wins 78%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AF 39–25 SJSUAF 35–49 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 39–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 42–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 46–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 49–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAF 53–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 56–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAF 60–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 63–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAF 32–46 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 35–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 39–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 42–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 46–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAF 49–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAF 53–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 56–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 60–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 28–42 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 32–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAF 35–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 39–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAF 42–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAF 46–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 49–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAF 53–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 56–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 25–39 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 28–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 32–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 35–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 39–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 42–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 46–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 49–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 53–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 21–35 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 25–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 28–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAF 32–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAF 35–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAF 39–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAF 42–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAF 46–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAF 49–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAF 18–32 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAF 21–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAF 25–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAF 28–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAF 32–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAF 35–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 39–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAF 42–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAF 46–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAF 14–28 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAF 18–25 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAF 21–21 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAF 25–18 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAF 28–14 SJSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAF 32–11 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAF 35–7 SJSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAF 39–4 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAF 42–0 SJSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalSJSU +14PKAF +14AF +28AF +42margin →