AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#90Away
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
29p
#120Home
Nevada
0-0 · AVR 32.0
23p
HAW 66%34% NEV
Spread
HAW -6.0
Total
52
Moneyline
HAW-195NEV+195
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← HAW advantageevenNEV advantage →
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
even
HAW run
NEV front #44NEV linebackers #116
NEV +16
NEV throw
NEV WR #150
HAW +20
NEV run
NEV backs #144
HAW +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Dylan LaBarbera
LT · HAW
EDGE · NEV
44.1
97.8
NEV +54
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Bryson Snelling
X · HAW
CB1 · NEV
57.9
64.8
NEV +7
when NEV throws
Daijon Calimon
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · NEV
CB1 · HAW
36.8
80.9
HAW +44
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
RB · HAW
MLB · NEV
61.2
54.5
HAW +7
off the edge· hunting Jones
Jack Foster
vs
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina
LT · NEV
EDGE · HAW
47.9
65.7
HAW +18
when NEV runs
Herschel Turner
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · NEV
MLB · HAW
47.0
56.5
HAW +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Nevada
DBBryson Snelling
64.8363/1427
DBJaylen Webb
64.7368/1427
DBBishop Turner
61.3449/1427
LBJeremy Naborne-Owens
54.5401/878
QBCarter Jones
54.3106/308
LBPoasa Utu
54.2403/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Hawai'i
opponent
Nevada
home+7.7
UNLV#70
-16.0away
home+1.5
North Dakota State#81
-11.9away
home+12.7
San José State#123
+4.2home
away+11.8
Northern Illinois#134
+3.3away
away+10.7
UTEP#133
+2.2away
home+3.6
New Mexico#86
-4.8home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +6.095% interval: -29.9 to 17.980% interval: -23.4 to 11.4-23+11HAW wins 66%NEV wins 34%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 28–21 NEVNEV 18–53 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNEV 21–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 25–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 28–42 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 32–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 35–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 39–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 42–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 46–25 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 14–49 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 18–46 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 21–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 25–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEV 28–35 HAW neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNEV 32–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 35–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 39–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 42–21 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 11–46 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 14–42 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 18–39 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 21–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 25–32 HAW neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNEV 28–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 32–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 35–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 39–18 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 7–42 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNEV 11–39 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 14–35 HAW neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNEV 18–32 HAW neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNEV 21–28 HAW neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNEV 25–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 28–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 32–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 35–14 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 4–39 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 7–35 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 11–32 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 14–28 HAW neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNEV 18–25 HAW neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNEV 21–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNEV 25–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNEV 28–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNEV 32–11 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 0–35 HAW neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNEV 4–32 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 7–28 HAW neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNEV 11–25 HAW neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNEV 14–21 HAW neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNEV 18–18 HAW neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNEV 21–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 25–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNEV 28–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NEV 0–28 HAW neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNEV 4–25 HAW neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNEV 7–21 HAW neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNEV 11–18 HAW neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNEV 14–14 HAW neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNEV 18–11 HAW neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNEV 21–7 HAW neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNEV 25–4 HAW neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalHAW +35HAW +21HAW +7NEV +7NEV +21margin →