Passing
FSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU offense
- #108
- FSU defense
- #84
EPA comparison
0.09
#108
0.19
#84
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
NMSU 2.3%97.7% FSU
- Projected margin
- FSU by 31.9
- Projected total
- 52
- 80% outcome range
- FSU 11 to FSU 52
- Win probability
- FSU 97.7%
FinalNMSU 17 · FSU 34model had +31.9, off by 14.9
Current team profiles
New Mexico StateFlorida StateWhen New Mexico State has the ball
Rushing
NMSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU offense
- #88
- FSU defense
- #112
EPA comparison
0.06
#88
0.15
#112
Rush EPA
Drive success
FSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU offense
- #99
- FSU defense
- #88
Success rates
41%
#99
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#115
0.16
#110
EPA / play
1.38
#12
1.31
#106
Explosiveness
17%
#119
16%
#68
Havoc
When Florida State has the ball
Passing
NMSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU defense
- #41
- FSU offense
- #72
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.22
#72
Pass EPA
Rushing
FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU defense
- #84
- FSU offense
- #8
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.28
#8
Rush EPA
Drive success
FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- NMSU defense
- #67
- FSU offense
- #57
Success rates
40%
#67
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.05
#60
0.22
#40
EPA / play
1.16
#36
1.38
#11
Explosiveness
14%
#97
15%
#74
Havoc
Current key players
New Mexico StateQBAdam Damante
345 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
90.913/729
CBTwan Wilson
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.2
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
83.931/2969
LBDrake Williams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.6
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
79.984/1796
SNick Session
38 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.8
- Coverage
- 81.0
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 125
- Passer rating allowed
- 51.3
- Missed tackles
- 7
79.767/2969
RBJalen Brown
68 yds · 0 TD · 13.6 YPC
78.2105/1044
CBDe'Marcus Peters
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 77.0
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 144
- Passer rating allowed
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.4112/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Ilya Uvaydov · KQues. · 2026-10-08
Uvaydov is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 21th.
- Ray Lotten · TEQues. · 2026-10-08
Lotten is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2
- Roscoe Burton · RBQues. · 2026-10-08
Burton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2
Florida StateQBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.1
- Coverage
- 64.7
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 5
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.7
- Coverage
- 74.9
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 77.4
- Coverage
- 64.8
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 10
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
- Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21
Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
- Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
- Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
NMSUNew Mexico State
FSUFlorida State
vs
Offense
90.9
#13 of 138
QB
Quarterback
77.7
#71 of 138
77.6
#50 of 138
RB
Running backs
82.2
#22 of 138
72.3
#55 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.3
#102 of 138
75.9
#34 of 138
TE
Tight ends
61.0
#112 of 138
65.9
#88 of 138
OL
Offensive line
66.4
#85 of 138
Defense
74.3
#61 of 138
DL
Defensive line
67.7
#127 of 138
70.9
#98 of 138
LB
Linebackers
72.0
#87 of 138
76.8
#18 of 138
DB
Secondary
68.8
#114 of 138