AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
7p
#30Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
47p
NMSU 0%100% FSU
Spread
FSU -40.2
Total
54
Moneyline
NMSU—FSU—
Against the market
FSU +9.2line FSU -31.0

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenFSU advantage →
NMSU throw
FSU +44
NMSU run
FSU +69
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
FSU +29
FSU run
FSU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · FSU
CB1 · NMSU
87.7
74.2
FSU +14
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · FSU
MLB · NMSU
68.8
68.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · FSU
EDGE · NMSU
68.0
64.0
FSU +4
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · NMSU
MLB · FSU
48.5
79.5
FSU +31
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · NMSU
CB1 · FSU
49.2
73.6
FSU +24
over the middle
Landen Thomas
vs
Walter Owens
TE · FSU
FS · NMSU
59.4
50.5
FSU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Projected margin

80% between 21 and 56
-7-3+3+7+14PKFSU +40.2MKT95% interval: 11 to 6580% interval: 21 to 56+21+56NMSU wins 0%FSU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 49–7 NMSUFSU 46–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 49–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 53–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 56–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 60–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 63–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 67–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 70–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 74–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFSU 53–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 56–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 60–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 63–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 67–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFSU 70–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 49–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesFSU 53–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesFSU 56–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 60–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 63–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)FSU 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFSU 46–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesFSU 49–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesFSU 53–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesFSU 56–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)FSU 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFSU 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFSU 42–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesFSU 46–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesFSU 49–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)FSU 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 39–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 42–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)FSU 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 35–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalFSU +14FSU +28FSU +42FSU +56FSU +70margin →