AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
23p
#77Home
East Carolina
0-0 · AVR 47.2
31p
APP 29%71% ECU
Spread
ECU -8.2
Total
54
Moneyline
APP+240ECU-240
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenECU advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46ECU pass rush #6
ECU +52
APP run
ECU +36
ECU throw
ECU protection #25
ECU +20
ECU run
ECU +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Jasiyah Robinson
LT · APP
EDGE · ECU
81.7
93.2
ECU +11
off the edge· hunting Griffis
Karson Jones
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · ECU
EDGE · APP
69.2
84.7
APP +15
when ECU runs
Michael Allen
vs
Colton Phares
RB · ECU
MLB · APP
58.2
76.6
APP +18
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
DJ Johnson Jr.
RB · APP
MLB · ECU
60.6
73.7
ECU +13
when ECU throws
Brock Spalding
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · ECU
CB1 · APP
52.8
77.4
APP +25
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
Kevon Merrell Jr.
X · APP
CB1 · ECU
41.4
74.1
ECU +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
East Carolina
DBKevon Merrell Jr.
74.1163/1427
LBDJ Johnson Jr.
73.7115/878
LBCrews Law
70.2143/878
DBZyeir Gamble
66.6319/1427
DBDerrion Horsley
65.2352/1427
QBMitch Griffis
59.771/308

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
App State
opponent
East Carolina
home+12.0
Charlotte#135
+12.8away
home-3.0
Old Dominion#76
-2.3away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKECU +8.295% interval: -15.7 to 32.180% interval: -9.2 to 25.6-9+26APP wins 29%ECU wins 71%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ECU 32–25 APPECU 28–49 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 32–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 53–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 56–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–46 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 28–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesECU 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesECU 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesECU 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 49–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 53–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 21–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 25–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesECU 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesECU 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesECU 46–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 49–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 18–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 21–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesECU 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesECU 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesECU 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesECU 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 42–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 46–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 14–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 18–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesECU 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesECU 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesECU 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesECU 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesECU 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 39–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesECU 42–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesECU 11–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesECU 14–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesECU 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesECU 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesECU 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesECU 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 35–7 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesECU 39–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesECU 7–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesECU 11–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesECU 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesECU 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesECU 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesECU 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesECU 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesECU 32–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesECU 35–0 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalAPP +21APP +7ECU +7ECU +21ECU +35margin →