AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 AM
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
19p
#90Home
Hawai'i
0-0 · AVR 43.3
34p
NMSU 15%85% HAW
Spread
HAW -15.4
Total
53
Moneyline
NMSU+582HAW-582
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenHAW advantage →
NMSU throw
HAW +29
NMSU run
HAW +29
HAW throw
HAW protection #102
HAW +22
HAW run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when HAW throws
Pofele Ashlock
vs
Bernock Iya
X · HAW
CB1 · NMSU
57.9
74.2
NMSU +16
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Elijah Palmer
X · NMSU
CB1 · HAW
49.2
80.9
HAW +32
when HAW runs
Cam Barfield
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · HAW
MLB · NMSU
61.2
68.2
NMSU +7
off the edge· hunting Alejado
Denaris DeRosa Jr.
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · HAW
EDGE · NMSU
44.1
64.0
NMSU +20
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Jamih Otis
RB · NMSU
MLB · HAW
48.5
56.5
HAW +8
over the middle
Devon Tauaefa
vs
Walter Owens
TE · HAW
FS · NMSU
48.0
50.5
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Hawai'i
DBElijah Palmer
80.985/1427
QBMicah Alejado
70.339/308
DBMatagi Thompson
62.4418/1427
RBCam Barfield
61.297/514
WRPofele Ashlock
57.9134/777
LBJamih Otis
56.5364/878

also out — P. Ashlock (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 33
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKHAW +15.495% interval: -8.5 to 39.380% interval: -1.9 to 32.8-2+33NMSU wins 15%HAW wins 85%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ HAW 35–21 NMSUHAW 32–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 35–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 39–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 42–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 46–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesHAW 49–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 53–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 56–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 60–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 28–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 32–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 35–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesHAW 39–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesHAW 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 53–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesHAW 56–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesHAW 25–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 28–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 32–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesHAW 35–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesHAW 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 49–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesHAW 53–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 21–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 25–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 28–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 32–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesHAW 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesHAW 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 46–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 49–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 18–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 21–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesHAW 25–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesHAW 28–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesHAW 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesHAW 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 42–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 46–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 14–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesHAW 18–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesHAW 21–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 25–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesHAW 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesHAW 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesHAW 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 39–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesHAW 42–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesHAW 11–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesHAW 14–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesHAW 18–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesHAW 21–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesHAW 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesHAW 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesHAW 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesHAW 35–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalNMSU +14PKHAW +14HAW +28HAW +42margin →