Passing
No comparison
- TAR offense
- —
- BGSU defense
- #75
EPA comparison
—
0.16
#75
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TAR 40.5%59.5% BGSU
- Projected margin
- BGSU by 3.8
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- TAR 17 to BGSU 24
- Win probability
- BGSU 59.5%
FinalTAR 20 · BGSU 13model had +3.8, off by 10.8
Current team profiles
Tarleton State
Bowling GreenWhen Tarleton State has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- TAR offense
- —
- BGSU defense
- #121
EPA comparison
—
0.18
#121
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- TAR offense
- #7
- BGSU defense
- #117
Success rates
50%
#7
46%
#117
Success rate
More metrics
0.36
#1
0.13
#95
EPA / play
0.25
#7
1.24
#82
Explosiveness
—
14%
#107
Havoc
When Bowling Green has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- TAR defense
- —
- BGSU offense
- #87
EPA comparison
—
0.15
#87
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- TAR defense
- —
- BGSU offense
- #136
EPA comparison
—
-0.12
#136
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- TAR defense
- #65
- BGSU offense
- #123
Success rates
44%
#65
38%
#123
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#85
-0.03
#126
EPA / play
0.24
#117
1.05
#134
Explosiveness
—
17%
#109
Havoc
Current key players
Tarleton StateQBKaden Anderson
1345 yds · 12 TD · 0 INT
91.55/370
RBMarkellus Bass
57 yds · 1 TD · 14.2 YPC
90.55/631
LBKenyon Partridge
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 28
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.27/1054
LBChris Robinson
29 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.3
- Coverage
- 76.6
- Pressures
- 4
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
85.116/1054
WRMarquis Willis
29 rec · 468 yds · 4 TD
82.215/1229
WRBryce Parker
10 rec · 140 yds · 1 TD
80.722/1229
Bowling GreenQBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 68.4
- Penalties
- 0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 69.3
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 67
- Passer rating allowed
- 99.5
- Missed tackles
- 5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.9
- Coverage
- 61.5
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26
Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10
Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
TARTarleton State
BGSUBowling Green
vs
Offense
91.5
#5 of 125
QB
Quarterback
61.2
#128 of 138
85.5
#3 of 126
RB
Running backs
76.8
#56 of 138
78.0
#4 of 126
WR
Receivers
64.1
#134 of 138
77.3
#12 of 124
TE
Tight ends
69.8
#66 of 138
73.2
#7 of 125
OL
Offensive line
60.3
#130 of 138
Defense
72.5
#43 of 126
DL
Defensive line
68.9
#117 of 138
82.5
#4 of 126
LB
Linebackers
62.2
#138 of 138
71.5
#62 of 126
DB
Secondary
67.0
#125 of 138