AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#111Away
Sacramento State
0-0 · AVR 35.0
29p
#114Home
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
25p
SAC 60%40% BGSU
Spread
SAC -3.8
Total
55
Moneyline
SAC-151BGSU+151
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SAC advantageevenBGSU advantage →
SAC throw
BGSU +63
SAC run
BGSU +56
BGSU throw
BGSU +5
BGSU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SAC throws
Matt Coleman
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · SAC
CB1 · BGSU
38.4
79.7
BGSU +41
when SAC runs
Cincere Rhaney
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · SAC
MLB · BGSU
46.2
69.1
BGSU +23
when BGSU runs
Austyn Dendy
vs
Tim Thomas
RB · BGSU
MLB · SAC
52.8
28.6
BGSU +24
off the edge· hunting Novosad
Brody Bolyn
vs
Isiah Chala
LT · BGSU
EDGE · SAC
28.1
52.5
SAC +24
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Boogsie Silvera
X · BGSU
CB1 · SAC
38.4
33.6
BGSU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Sacramento State
RBCincere Rhaney
46.2403/514
QBCarson Conklin
39.5283/308
WRMatt Coleman
38.4657/777
SBoogsie Silvera
33.61181/1427
LBTim Thomas
28.6803/878
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Sacramento State
opponent
Bowling Green
home+1.1
Toledo#73
-10.3away
home+28.7
Massachusetts#138
+22.3home
home+14.4
Kent State#128
+8.1home
away+12.1
Ball State#136
+10.8home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSAC +3.895% interval: -27.7 to 20.180% interval: -21.2 to 13.5-21+14SAC wins 60%BGSU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SAC 32–25 BGSUBGSU 21–56 SAC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBGSU 25–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–49 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 32–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 35–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 39–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 42–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 46–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBGSU 49–28 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBGSU 18–53 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 21–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 25–46 SAC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 28–42 SAC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBGSU 32–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 35–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 39–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBGSU 42–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBGSU 46–25 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 14–49 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 18–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 21–42 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–39 SAC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 28–35 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 32–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBGSU 35–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBGSU 39–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBGSU 42–21 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 11–46 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 14–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBGSU 18–39 SAC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBGSU 21–35 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 25–32 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 28–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBGSU 32–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 35–21 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 39–18 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 7–42 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 11–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 14–35 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 18–32 SAC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBGSU 21–28 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 25–25 SAC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBGSU 28–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBGSU 32–18 SAC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBGSU 35–14 SAC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBGSU 4–39 SAC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBGSU 7–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 11–32 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 14–28 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 18–25 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBGSU 21–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBGSU 25–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 28–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBGSU 32–11 SAC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBGSU 0–35 SAC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesBGSU 4–32 SAC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBGSU 7–28 SAC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBGSU 11–25 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 14–21 SAC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBGSU 18–18 SAC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBGSU 21–14 SAC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBGSU 25–11 SAC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBGSU 28–7 SAC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalSAC +35SAC +21SAC +7BGSU +7BGSU +21margin →