AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Thu Oct 22 · 11:00 PM
#55Away
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
31p
#103Home
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
23p
JMU 71%29% APP
Spread
JMU -8.0
Total
55
Moneyline
JMU-251APP+251
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JMU advantageevenAPP advantage →
JMU throw
JMU protection #122
APP +7
JMU run
APP +25
APP throw
APP protection #46
JMU +44
APP run
JMU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · APP
EDGE · JMU
81.7
86.0
JMU +4
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · APP
MLB · JMU
60.6
77.9
JMU +17
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · JMU
CB1 · APP
52.8
77.4
APP +25
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
Colton Phares
RB · JMU
MLB · APP
53.5
76.6
APP +23
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
DJ Kelly
X · APP
CB1 · JMU
41.4
87.2
JMU +46
off the edge· hunting Evans
Tyler Brown
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · JMU
EDGE · APP
13.0
84.7
APP +72

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
James Madison
opponent
App State
home+19.8
Coastal Carolina#126
+4.2away
home+8.2
Marshall#83
-7.3away
home+19.3
Georgia State#131
+8.7home
away+9.9
Georgia Southern#117
-0.6away
away+2.5
Old Dominion#76
-3.0home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +8.095% interval: -31.9 to 15.980% interval: -25.4 to 9.4-25+9JMU wins 71%APP wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 32–25 APPAPP 21–56 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 25–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAPP 28–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 32–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 35–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 39–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 42–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 46–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 49–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAPP 18–53 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 21–49 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 25–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAPP 28–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAPP 32–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 35–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 39–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 42–28 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 46–25 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 14–49 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 18–46 JMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAPP 21–42 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 25–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 28–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 32–32 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 35–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 39–25 JMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAPP 42–21 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 11–46 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 14–42 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 18–39 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 21–35 JMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAPP 25–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAPP 28–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 32–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 35–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 39–18 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 7–42 JMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAPP 11–39 JMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAPP 14–35 JMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAPP 18–32 JMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAPP 21–28 JMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAPP 25–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAPP 28–21 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 32–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 35–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 4–39 JMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAPP 7–35 JMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAPP 11–32 JMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAPP 14–28 JMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAPP 18–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAPP 21–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAPP 25–18 JMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesAPP 28–14 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 32–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 0–35 JMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAPP 4–32 JMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAPP 7–28 JMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAPP 11–25 JMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAPP 14–21 JMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAPP 18–18 JMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAPP 21–14 JMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAPP 25–11 JMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAPP 28–7 JMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalJMU +35JMU +21JMU +7APP +7APP +21margin →