Passing
USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA offense
- #37
- ARST defense
- #135
EPA comparison
0.34
#37
0.46
#135
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
USA 44.1%55.9% ARST
- Projected margin
- ARST by 2.1
- Projected total
- 56
- 80% outcome range
- USA 18 to ARST 21
- Win probability
- ARST 55.9%
FinalUSA 56 · ARST 49model had +2.1, off by 9.1
Current team profiles
South Alabama
Arkansas StateWhen South Alabama has the ball
Rushing
USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA offense
- #30
- ARST defense
- #102
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.13
#102
Rush EPA
Drive success
USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA offense
- #69
- ARST defense
- #129
Success rates
44%
#69
47%
#129
Success rate
More metrics
0.23
#36
0.21
#123
EPA / play
1.33
#23
1.20
#63
Explosiveness
13%
#34
11%
#132
Havoc
When Arkansas State has the ball
Passing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA defense
- #122
- ARST offense
- #70
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.23
#70
Pass EPA
Rushing
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA defense
- #125
- ARST offense
- #39
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.18
#39
Rush EPA
Drive success
ARST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- USA defense
- #137
- ARST offense
- #13
Success rates
51%
#137
50%
#13
Success rate
More metrics
0.27
#134
0.18
#59
EPA / play
1.36
#119
1.16
#103
Explosiveness
17%
#52
14%
#66
Havoc
Current key players
South AlabamaQBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 42.8
- Coverage
- 79.8
- Targets allowed
- 14
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 115
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 72.2
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 2
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 79.2
- Missed tackles
- 0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.1
- Coverage
- 75.4
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 53.1
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Targets allowed
- 24
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 116
- Passer rating allowed
- 70.8
- Missed tackles
- 5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
- Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01
Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01
Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01
Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.
Arkansas StateQBTrey Owens
1043 yds · 5 TD · 4 INT
77.596/729
LBKam Moore
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 86.2
- Coverage
- 72.3
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 4
- Missed tackles
- 3
- Forced fumbles
- 0
85.234/1796
LBRobert Stevens
25 tkl · 3.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 89.5
- Pressures
- 3
- Pass-rush snaps
- 17
- Missed tackles
- 6
- Forced fumbles
- 1
84.940/1796
SBrandon Greil
16 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.5
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 54
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.2
- Missed tackles
- 3
80.458/2969
CBNoah Flores
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.2
- Coverage
- 81.9
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 108
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.097/2969
RBJames Lee
123 yds · 0 TD · 7.2 YPC
75.5170/1044
Availability reports · 1
- Devin Spencer · RBout · 2026-08-17
Spencer is dealing with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
USASouth Alabama
ARSTArkansas State
vs
Offense
73.0
#90 of 138
QB
Quarterback
77.5
#73 of 138
78.0
#47 of 138
RB
Running backs
74.5
#77 of 138
68.0
#110 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#61 of 138
61.4
#109 of 138
TE
Tight ends
67.0
#82 of 138
65.6
#91 of 138
OL
Offensive line
71.0
#46 of 138
Defense
65.2
#135 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.6
#77 of 138
66.2
#128 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.9
#37 of 138
69.4
#106 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.6
#21 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
South Alabama
opponent
Arkansas State
Hhome+5.2
LTLouisiana Tech#87-3.9Aaway
Hhome+7.4
TROYTroy#111+3.7Hhome
Aaway+1.7
USMSouthern Miss#139-2.0Aaway
Hhome+17.0
ULMUL Monroe#163+15.5Hhome
Aaway-4.0
ULLouisiana#92-3.0Aaway