AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 11:30 PM
#100Away
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
27p
#104Home
Arkansas State
0-0 · AVR 38.8
27p
USA 50%50% ARST
Spread
USA -0.1
Total
55
Moneyline
USA-101ARST+101
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USA advantageevenARST advantage →
USA throw
even
USA run
USA +33
ARST throw
ARST +11
ARST run
ARST backs #67
ARST +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARST runs
Kenyon Clay
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · ARST
MLB · USA
59.4
59.9
dead even
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Five Hamilton
X · USA
CB1 · ARST
49.2
67.8
ARST +19
when ARST throws
Chauncy Cobb
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · ARST
CB1 · USA
45.7
69.9
USA +24
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
Nigel Nelson
RB · USA
MLB · ARST
60.0
51.6
USA +8
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Joe Drew
TE · USA
FS · ARST
43.7
59.0
ARST +15
over the middle
Tyler Little
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · ARST
FS · USA
38.4
42.7
USA +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427
Arkansas State
SFive Hamilton
67.8286/1427
CBNoah Flores
66.7315/1427
CBJaylen Heyward
65.2351/1427
RBKenyon Clay
59.4117/514
QBDrew Dickey
55.395/308
LBNigel Nelson
51.6446/878

also out — D. Spencer (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Alabama
opponent
Arkansas State
home+3.1
Louisiana Tech#94
-4.3away
away-3.7
Louisiana#99
-6.2away
home+15.1
UL Monroe#132
+12.7home
home+3.2
Troy#95
+0.8home
away-1.7
Southern Miss#93
-4.1away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARST +0.195% interval: -23.8 to 2480% interval: -17.3 to 17.5-17+18USA wins 50%ARST wins 50%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARST 28–28 USAARST 25–53 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 28–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 32–46 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 35–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 39–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 42–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 46–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARST 49–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARST 53–25 USA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARST 21–49 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 25–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARST 28–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 32–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 35–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARST 39–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARST 42–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARST 46–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 49–21 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 18–46 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 21–42 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 25–39 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 28–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 32–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARST 35–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARST 39–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 42–21 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 46–18 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 14–42 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 18–39 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 21–35 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 25–32 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 28–28 USA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARST 32–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARST 35–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 39–18 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 42–14 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 11–39 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 14–35 USA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARST 18–32 USA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARST 21–28 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 25–25 USA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARST 28–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 32–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 35–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARST 39–11 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 7–35 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 11–32 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 14–28 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 18–25 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 21–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARST 25–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARST 28–14 USA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARST 32–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARST 35–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARST 4–32 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARST 7–28 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 11–25 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 14–21 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 18–18 USA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARST 21–14 USA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARST 25–11 USA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARST 28–7 USA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARST 32–4 USA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSA +28USA +14PKARST +14ARST +28margin →