AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Thu Oct 29 · 11:30 PM
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
21p
#55Home
James Madison
0-0 · AVR 53.7
32p
TROY 23%77% JMU
Spread
JMU -11.0
Total
54
Moneyline
TROY+336JMU-336
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenJMU advantage →
TROY throw
JMU +48
TROY run
JMU +38
JMU throw
JMU protection #122TROY coverage #45
TROY +18
JMU run
TROY +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
DJ Kelly
X · TROY
CB1 · JMU
51.9
87.2
JMU +35
when JMU throws
Za'Ron Collins
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · JMU
CB1 · TROY
52.8
83.7
TROY +31
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Gannon Weathersby
RB · TROY
MLB · JMU
50.3
77.9
JMU +28
when JMU runs
George Pettaway
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · JMU
MLB · TROY
53.5
68.5
TROY +15
off the edge· hunting Kilcrease
Patrick Screws Jr.
vs
Amar Thomas
LT · TROY
EDGE · JMU
33.0
86.0
JMU +53
over the middle
Jackson Worley
vs
TJ McGill
TE · TROY
FS · JMU
38.1
57.7
JMU +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
James Madison
CBDJ Kelly
87.226/1427
SKJ Flowe
84.649/1427
LBGannon Weathersby
77.983/878
SJoshua Prince
69.4256/1427
LBLee Johnson
64.8219/878
LBJayden Studio
58.8316/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Troy
opponent
James Madison
home+6.4
Georgia Southern#117
+9.9away
home+2.6
Southern Miss#93
+6.1away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJMU +11.095% interval: -12.9 to 34.980% interval: -6.4 to 28.4-6+28TROY wins 23%JMU wins 77%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JMU 35–21 TROYJMU 32–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJMU 56–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJMU 60–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesJMU 28–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJMU 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJMU 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJMU 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJMU 53–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 56–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 25–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJMU 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJMU 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 49–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 53–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 21–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJMU 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJMU 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJMU 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJMU 46–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 49–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJMU 18–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesJMU 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJMU 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJMU 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJMU 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJMU 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJMU 42–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJMU 46–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 14–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJMU 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJMU 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJMU 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJMU 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJMU 39–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJMU 42–0 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJMU 11–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJMU 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJMU 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJMU 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJMU 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJMU 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJMU 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJMU 35–0 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTROY +14PKJMU +14JMU +28JMU +42margin →