CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Thu Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET
#111Away
Troy
3-2 · AVR 51.8
17p
#51Home
James Madison
6-0 · AVR 62.9
38p
Forecast win probability
TROY 9.3%90.7% JMU
Projected margin
JMU by 20.6
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
JMU 2 to JMU 39
Win probability
JMU 90.7%

Current team profiles

Troy
James Madison

When Troy has the ball

Passing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#101
JMU defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#45
JMU defense
#22
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA

Drive success

JMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#79
JMU defense
#22
Success rates
43%
#79
35%
#22
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#78
-0.05
#22
EPA / play
1.26
#47
1.29
#100
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#59
Havoc

When James Madison has the ball

Passing

JMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#71
JMU offense
#22
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.42
#22
Pass EPA

Rushing

JMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#56
JMU offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.21
#28
Rush EPA

Drive success

JMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#64
JMU offense
#37
Success rates
40%
#64
48%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#73
0.29
#20
EPA / play
1.35
#116
1.24
#65
Explosiveness
17%
#59
10%
#13
Havoc

Current key players

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

James Madison
QBArrington Maiden
111 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
81.763/729
SJayon Harvey
34 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.1
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
98.7
Missed tackles
4
81.247/2969
LBJT Hooten
27 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.6
Coverage
69.4
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
39
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
81.069/1796
WRArrion Concepcion
1 rec · 16 yds · 0 TD
79.065/2069
SD'Kwan Thomas
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.1
Coverage
68.0
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
4
Passer rating allowed
83.3
Missed tackles
0
75.3184/2969
CBKen Willis
24 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.1
Coverage
67.8
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
119
Passer rating allowed
65.4
Missed tackles
5
74.9195/2969
Availability reports · 1
  • Za'Ron Collins · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Collins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Panthers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TROY
JMU
vs
Offense
60.7
#130 of 138
QB
81.7
#54 of 138
76.6
#59 of 138
RB
71.7
#107 of 138
67.0
#121 of 138
WR
74.5
#36 of 138
69.3
#68 of 138
TE
73.1
#45 of 138
61.6
#123 of 138
OL
71.7
#39 of 138
Defense
64.1
#138 of 138
DL
76.6
#39 of 138
69.1
#112 of 138
LB
75.0
#59 of 138
72.0
#71 of 138
DB
74.0
#45 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Troy
opponent
James Madison
H+21.0
USM#139
+14.9A
H+0.4
GASO#102
+3.0A