AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#89Away
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
25p
#75Home
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
31p
JXST 34%66% WKU
Spread
WKU -6.0
Total
56
Moneyline
JXST+192WKU-192
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JXST advantageevenWKU advantage →
JXST throw
WKU pass rush #101
JXST +12
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +21
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
JXST +17
WKU run
JXST +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · JXST
CB1 · WKU
71.0
87.0
WKU +16
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · WKU
CB1 · JXST
57.8
79.4
JXST +22
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · WKU
MLB · JXST
56.8
73.0
JXST +16
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Zeiqui Lawton
LT · JXST
EDGE · WKU
65.3
61.1
JXST +4
over the middle
Griffin Reimer
vs
Marc Woods
TE · WKU
FS · JXST
58.1
67.8
JXST +10
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · JXST
MLB · WKU
49.7
58.1
WKU +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Jacksonville State
opponent
Western Kentucky
away+3.9
Kennesaw State#105
+12.5home
away+2.6
Delaware#102
+11.2home
away+10.1
New Mexico State#130
+13.6away
home+13.4
Missouri State#125
+16.9home
home+11.6
Middle Tennessee#124
+10.1away
home+17.8
Sam Houston#137
+16.4away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +6.095% interval: -17.9 to 29.980% interval: -11.4 to 23.4-11+23JXST wins 34%WKU wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 32–25 JXSTWKU 28–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 32–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 35–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 39–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWKU 42–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 46–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 49–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 53–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 56–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 25–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 28–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 32–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 35–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 39–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 42–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 46–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 49–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 53–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 21–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 25–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 28–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 32–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWKU 35–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 39–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 42–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 46–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 49–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 18–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 21–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 25–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 28–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 32–25 JXST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWKU 35–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWKU 39–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWKU 42–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 46–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 14–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 18–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 21–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 25–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWKU 28–21 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 32–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 35–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 39–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 42–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 11–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 14–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 18–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 21–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 25–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 28–14 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 32–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 35–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 39–4 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 7–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 11–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 14–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 18–18 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWKU 21–14 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 25–11 JXST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWKU 28–7 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 32–4 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 35–0 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalJXST +21JXST +7WKU +7WKU +21WKU +35margin →