AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#130Away
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
25p
#125Home
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
29p
NMSU 39%61% MOST
Spread
MOST -4.2
Total
53
Moneyline
NMSU+156MOST-156
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NMSU advantageevenMOST advantage →
NMSU throw
MOST +12
NMSU run
MOST +34
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
even
MOST run
MOST backs #83
NMSU +14

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · MOST
CB1 · NMSU
76.8
74.2
dead even
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · MOST
MLB · NMSU
61.8
68.2
NMSU +6
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · NMSU
MLB · MOST
48.5
62.0
MOST +13
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Walter Owens
TE · MOST
FS · NMSU
59.4
50.5
MOST +9
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · NMSU
CB1 · MOST
49.2
53.2
MOST +4
off the edge· hunting Damante
Sioeli Helu
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · NMSU
EDGE · MOST
0.7
79.5
MOST +79

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
New Mexico State
opponent
Missouri State
away+0.2
Sam Houston#137
+6.9home
home-10.1
Jacksonville State#89
-13.4away
home-5.0
Delaware#102
-8.3away
home-13.6
Western Kentucky#75
-16.9away
away-10.4
Florida International#109
-8.8away
home-8.6
Liberty#106
-7.0home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMOST +4.295% interval: -19.7 to 28.180% interval: -13.2 to 21.6-13+22NMSU wins 39%MOST wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MOST 32–25 NMSUMOST 28–49 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 32–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 35–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 39–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 42–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 46–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 49–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMOST 53–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 56–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMOST 25–46 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 28–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMOST 32–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 35–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 39–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 42–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMOST 46–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 49–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 53–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 21–42 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 25–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 28–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 32–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 35–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMOST 39–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 42–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMOST 46–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 49–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 18–39 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 21–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 25–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 28–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 32–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 35–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 39–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 42–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 46–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 14–35 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 18–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 21–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMOST 25–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMOST 28–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMOST 32–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMOST 35–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMOST 39–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMOST 42–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMOST 11–32 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMOST 14–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMOST 18–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMOST 21–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 25–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMOST 28–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 32–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMOST 35–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMOST 39–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMOST 7–28 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMOST 11–25 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMOST 14–21 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMOST 18–18 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMOST 21–14 NMSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMOST 25–11 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMOST 28–7 NMSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMOST 32–4 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMOST 35–0 NMSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalNMSU +21NMSU +7MOST +7MOST +21MOST +35margin →