Passing
JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #88
- JXST defense
- #41
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.07
#41
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MTSU 33.2%66.8% JXST
- Projected margin
- JXST by 6.2
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- MTSU 14 to JXST 25
- Win probability
- JXST 66.8%
FinalMTSU 13 · JXST 23model had +6.2, off by 3.8
Current team profiles
Middle TennesseeJacksonville StateWhen Middle Tennessee has the ball
Rushing
MTSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #85
- JXST defense
- #91
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
0.09
#91
Rush EPA
Drive success
JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #118
- JXST defense
- #87
Success rates
39%
#118
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#90
0.05
#62
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.09
#19
Explosiveness
14%
#67
16%
#77
Havoc
When Jacksonville State has the ball
Passing
JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #84
- JXST offense
- #33
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.36
#33
Pass EPA
Rushing
JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #132
- JXST offense
- #85
EPA comparison
0.24
#132
0.07
#85
Rush EPA
Drive success
JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #135
- JXST offense
- #38
Success rates
51%
#135
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#124
0.18
#54
EPA / play
1.12
#27
1.17
#100
Explosiveness
10%
#138
14%
#56
Havoc
Current key players
Middle TennesseeQBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 56.0
- Coverage
- 79.0
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 40
- Passer rating allowed
- 106.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.9
- Coverage
- 68.3
- Targets allowed
- 24
- Rec allowed
- 18
- Yards allowed
- 203
- Passer rating allowed
- 127.6
- Missed tackles
- 6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.3
- Coverage
- 73.0
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 84
- Passer rating allowed
- 35.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
Jacksonville StateQBCaden Creel
1112 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
68.6177/729
WRFranklin Baret Jr.
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
86.421/2069
STy Sims
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 75.5
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
82.441/2969
LBWalker O'Steen
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.0
- Coverage
- 77.3
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 19
- Missed tackles
- 4
- Forced fumbles
- 0
80.478/1796
SCaleb Nix
30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.0
- Coverage
- 82.0
- Targets allowed
- 15
- Rec allowed
- 8
- Yards allowed
- 89
- Passer rating allowed
- 43.5
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.878/2969
LBMac Sanders
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 77.1
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.5109/1796
Availability reports · 7
- Andrew Paul · RBout · 2026-10-07
Paul is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
- Franklin Baret Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-08
Baret Jr has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
- Rollie Pinto · WRQues. · 2026-10-08
Pinto is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
- Landon Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08
Watkins is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
- AJ Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08
Watkins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
- Justus Savage · RBQues. · 2026-10-08
Savage is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
- Nabi Hoyt · WRQues. · 2026-10-08
Hoyt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MTSUMiddle Tennessee
JXSTJacksonville State
vs
Offense
63.0
#125 of 138
QB
Quarterback
68.6
#108 of 138
64.2
#136 of 138
RB
Running backs
73.8
#86 of 138
70.9
#74 of 138
WR
Receivers
78.1
#17 of 138
58.2
#131 of 138
TE
Tight ends
72.3
#50 of 138
63.6
#109 of 138
OL
Offensive line
67.7
#70 of 138
Defense
70.4
#101 of 138
DL
Defensive line
70.9
#95 of 138
63.6
#136 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.7
#32 of 138
71.4
#76 of 138
DB
Secondary
77.3
#13 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Jacksonville State
Aaway-9.9
FIUFlorida International#99+4.8Hhome
Aaway+2.0
SHSUSam Houston#125+16.7Hhome
Hhome-4.0
KENNKennesaw State#113+1.0Aaway
Hhome-0.1
NMSUNew Mexico State#120+4.0Aaway
Hhome-1.8
DELDelaware#119+2.2Aaway
Hhome-1.2
WKUWestern Kentucky#122+2.8Aaway