AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 11:00 PM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
22p
#89Home
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
33p
MTSU 21%79% JXST
Spread
JXST -11.6
Total
55
Moneyline
MTSU+379JXST-379
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenJXST advantage →
MTSU throw
JXST +38
MTSU run
JXST +34
JXST throw
JXST +57
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · JXST
EDGE · MTSU
65.3
79.4
MTSU +14
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · JXST
MLB · MTSU
49.7
79.4
MTSU +30
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · MTSU
CB1 · JXST
48.1
79.4
JXST +31
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · MTSU
MLB · JXST
51.1
73.0
JXST +22
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
James Johnson
X · JXST
CB1 · MTSU
71.0
49.4
JXST +22
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Marc Woods
TE · MTSU
FS · JXST
42.5
67.8
JXST +25

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Middle Tennessee
opponent
Jacksonville State
away-6.9
Florida International#109
+7.2home
away+3.8
Sam Houston#137
+17.8home
home-10.1
Western Kentucky#75
-6.0away
home+6.0
New Mexico State#130
+10.1away
home-1.4
Delaware#102
+2.6away
home-0.1
Kennesaw State#105
+3.9away

Projected margin

80% between -6 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +11.695% interval: -12.3 to 35.580% interval: -5.8 to 29-6+29MTSU wins 21%JXST wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 35–21 MTSUJXST 32–46 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 35–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 39–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJXST 42–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 46–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 49–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 53–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 56–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 60–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesJXST 28–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 49–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 53–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 56–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 25–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesJXST 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesJXST 46–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 49–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 53–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 21–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJXST 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesJXST 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 42–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 46–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 49–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 18–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJXST 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJXST 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesJXST 39–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 42–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 46–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 14–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 35–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesJXST 39–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 42–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 11–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesJXST 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 32–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 35–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMTSU +14PKJXST +14JXST +28JXST +42margin →