AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Fri Oct 2
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
34p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
20p
WKU 82%18% NMSU
Spread
WKU -13.6
Total
54
Moneyline
WKU-469NMSU+469
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenNMSU advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
WKU +9
WKU run
NMSU +16
NMSU throw
WKU pass rush #101
WKU +40
NMSU run
WKU +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · NMSU
CB1 · WKU
49.2
87.0
WKU +38
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · WKU
CB1 · NMSU
57.8
74.2
NMSU +16
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · WKU
MLB · NMSU
56.8
68.2
NMSU +11
over the middle
Griffin Reimer
vs
Walter Owens
TE · WKU
FS · NMSU
58.1
50.5
WKU +8
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · NMSU
MLB · WKU
48.5
58.1
WKU +10
over the middle
Ray Lotten
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · NMSU
FS · WKU
34.5
71.4
WKU +37

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Kentucky
opponent
New Mexico State
home+16.9
Missouri State#125
-4.2away
away+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+0.2away
home+11.2
Delaware#102
-5.0home
away+10.1
Middle Tennessee#124
-6.0away
home+6.0
Jacksonville State#89
-10.1home
away+2.5
Liberty#106
-8.6home
home+25.1
Mercyhurst
+14.4home

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +13.695% interval: -37.5 to 10.380% interval: -31 to 3.8-31+4WKU wins 82%NMSU wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 35–21 NMSUNMSU 18–60 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 21–56 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–53 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 28–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 35–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 14–56 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 18–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 21–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 25–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 14–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 18–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 21–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 WKU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 7–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 11–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 14–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 18–39 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 WKU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 4–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 7–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 11–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 14–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 0–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNMSU 4–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 7–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 11–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NMSU 0–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 4–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 7–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalWKU +42WKU +28WKU +14PKNMSU +14margin →