Passing
NMSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU offense
- #114
- NMSU defense
- #41
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.07
#41
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Thu Oct 1 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
WKU 42.9%57.1% NMSU
- Projected margin
- NMSU by 2.3
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- WKU 17 to NMSU 21
- Win probability
- NMSU 57.1%
FinalWKU 13 · NMSU 34model had +2.3, off by 18.7
Current team profiles
Western KentuckyNew Mexico StateWhen Western Kentucky has the ball
Rushing
NMSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU offense
- #116
- NMSU defense
- #84
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.07
#84
Rush EPA
Drive success
NMSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU offense
- #119
- NMSU defense
- #67
Success rates
38%
#119
40%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#113
0.05
#60
EPA / play
1.26
#54
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
15%
#84
14%
#97
Havoc
When New Mexico State has the ball
Passing
WKU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU defense
- #41
- NMSU offense
- #108
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.09
#108
Pass EPA
Rushing
NMSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU defense
- #137
- NMSU offense
- #88
EPA comparison
0.30
#137
0.06
#88
Rush EPA
Drive success
WKU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- WKU defense
- #82
- NMSU offense
- #99
Success rates
42%
#82
41%
#99
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#118
0.02
#115
EPA / play
1.43
#133
1.38
#12
Explosiveness
14%
#106
17%
#119
Havoc
Current key players
Western KentuckyQBCaleb McMickle
3 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.6230/729
LBJoshua Mensah
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.2
- Coverage
- 71.9
- Pressures
- 2
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
77.0140/1796
WRJonathan Stafford Jr.
30 rec · 266 yds · 0 TD
74.0148/2069
DBBraxton Myers
7 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.2
- Coverage
- 73.4
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 24
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 2
73.2265/2969
RBKalib Hicks
22 yds · 0 TD · 3.1 YPC
71.3275/1044
DBJaylen Lewis
40 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 63.7
- Coverage
- 72.7
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 31
- Passer rating allowed
- 119.6
- Missed tackles
- 6
70.1437/2969
Availability reports · 5
- Nigel Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
Johnson is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday.
- Griffin Reimer · TEQues. · 2026-10-09
Reimer is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday.
- Sincere Baines · RBQues. · 2026-10-09
Baines is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Sam Houston on Wednesday.
- Adrion Boyd · RBQues. · 2026-10-09
Boyd is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday.
- K.D. Hutchinson · WRQues. · 2026-10-09
Hutchinson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday.
New Mexico StateQBAdam Damante
345 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
90.913/729
CBTwan Wilson
0 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 62.2
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Targets allowed
- 1
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
83.931/2969
LBDrake Williams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.6
- Pressures
- 0
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
79.984/1796
SNick Session
38 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 71.8
- Coverage
- 81.0
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 14
- Yards allowed
- 125
- Passer rating allowed
- 51.3
- Missed tackles
- 7
79.767/2969
RBJalen Brown
68 yds · 0 TD · 13.6 YPC
78.2105/1044
CBDe'Marcus Peters
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 73.9
- Coverage
- 77.0
- Targets allowed
- 19
- Rec allowed
- 11
- Yards allowed
- 144
- Passer rating allowed
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 1
77.4112/2969
Availability reports · 3
- Ilya Uvaydov · KQues. · 2026-10-08
Uvaydov is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 21th.
- Ray Lotten · TEQues. · 2026-10-08
Lotten is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2
- Roscoe Burton · RBQues. · 2026-10-08
Burton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Sam Houston on Wednesday, October 2
Position units
Position-unit comparison
WKUWestern Kentucky
NMSUNew Mexico State
vs
Offense
63.6
#123 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.9
#13 of 138
68.8
#125 of 138
RB
Running backs
77.6
#50 of 138
69.8
#82 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.3
#55 of 138
68.9
#70 of 138
TE
Tight ends
75.9
#34 of 138
63.7
#108 of 138
OL
Offensive line
65.9
#88 of 138
Defense
69.4
#114 of 138
DL
Defensive line
74.3
#61 of 138
70.4
#101 of 138
LB
Linebackers
70.9
#98 of 138
69.1
#110 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.8
#18 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Western Kentucky
opponent
New Mexico State
Hhome+21.0
MOSTMissouri State#141-0.5Aaway
Hhome+45.0
MERCMercyhurst#239+37.0Hhome
Aaway-11.4
LIBLiberty#77-7.2Hhome
Hhome+2.1
DELDelaware#119+0.9Hhome
Hhome-2.8
JXSTJacksonville State#103-4.0Hhome
Aaway+5.9
SHSUSam Houston#125+4.8Aaway
Aaway+1.2
MTSUMiddle Tennessee#150+0.1Aaway