AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Thu Oct 8 · 11:00 PM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
19p
#75Home
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
36p
MOST 12%88% WKU
Spread
WKU -16.9
Total
55
Moneyline
MOST+717WKU-717
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenWKU advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
WKU +22
MOST run
MOST backs #83
even
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
WKU +13
WKU run
MOST +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · MOST
CB1 · WKU
76.8
87.0
WKU +10
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · MOST
FS · WKU
59.4
71.4
WKU +12
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · MOST
MLB · WKU
61.8
58.1
MOST +4
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · WKU
MLB · MOST
56.8
62.0
MOST +5
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · WKU
CB1 · MOST
57.8
53.2
WKU +5
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Alec Johnson
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · WKU
EDGE · MOST
23.2
79.5
MOST +56

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri State
opponent
Western Kentucky
away-8.3
Delaware#102
+11.2home
away-13.4
Jacksonville State#89
+6.0home
home-2.0
Kennesaw State#105
+12.5home
home-7.0
Liberty#106
+2.5away
home+6.9
Sam Houston#137
+16.4away
home+4.2
New Mexico State#130
+13.6away

Projected margin

80% between -0 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +16.995% interval: -7 to 40.980% interval: -0.4 to 34.30+34MOST wins 12%WKU wins 88%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 35–21 MOSTWKU 32–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWKU 35–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 39–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWKU 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWKU 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWKU 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWKU 60–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWKU 28–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 32–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 35–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWKU 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWKU 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 56–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 25–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 28–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 32–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWKU 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWKU 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 53–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 21–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWKU 25–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 28–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWKU 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWKU 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWKU 49–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 18–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 21–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWKU 25–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWKU 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWKU 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWKU 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 46–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 14–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWKU 18–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWKU 21–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWKU 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWKU 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWKU 42–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWKU 11–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesWKU 14–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWKU 18–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWKU 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWKU 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWKU 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWKU 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWKU 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMOST +14PKWKU +14WKU +28WKU +42margin →