AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Thu Oct 29
#89Away
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
33p
#130Home
New Mexico State
0-0 · AVR 26.9
22p
JXST 75%25% NMSU
Spread
JXST -10.1
Total
55
Moneyline
JXST-303NMSU+303
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← JXST advantageevenNMSU advantage →
JXST throw
JXST +36
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +11
NMSU throw
JXST +42
NMSU run
JXST +54

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Bernock Iya
X · JXST
CB1 · NMSU
71.0
74.2
NMSU +3
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Reeves Baller
LT · JXST
EDGE · NMSU
65.3
64.0
dead even
when NMSU throws
Brodie Malone-Bradford
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · NMSU
CB1 · JXST
49.2
79.4
JXST +30
when NMSU runs
Dijon Stanley
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · NMSU
MLB · JXST
48.5
73.0
JXST +24
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Sone Aupiu
RB · JXST
MLB · NMSU
49.7
68.2
NMSU +18
over the middle
Ray Lotten
vs
Marc Woods
TE · NMSU
FS · JXST
34.5
67.8
JXST +33

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777
New Mexico State
SBernock Iyaout
74.2161/1427
LBSone Aupiu
68.2174/878
LBTory Gethers
67.9179/878
SNick Session
64.6369/1427
CBLorenzo Smith
51.3733/1427
WRBrodie Malone-Bradford
49.2335/777

also out — Josiah Thomas (TE)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Jacksonville State
opponent
New Mexico State
home+11.6
Middle Tennessee#124
-6.0away
home+7.2
Florida International#109
-10.4away
home+17.8
Sam Houston#137
+0.2away
home+13.4
Missouri State#125
-4.2away
away-6.0
Western Kentucky#75
-13.6home
away+2.6
Delaware#102
-5.0home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +10.195% interval: -34 to 13.880% interval: -27.5 to 7.3-27+7JXST wins 75%NMSU wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 32–25 NMSUNMSU 21–56 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 25–53 JXST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNMSU 28–49 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 32–46 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 35–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 39–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 42–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 46–32 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 49–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesNMSU 18–53 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 21–49 JXST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–46 JXST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNMSU 28–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 32–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 35–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNMSU 39–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 42–28 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 46–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 14–49 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 18–46 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 21–42 JXST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNMSU 25–39 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 28–35 JXST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNMSU 32–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNMSU 35–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 39–25 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 42–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 11–46 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 14–42 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 18–39 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 21–35 JXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNMSU 28–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNMSU 32–25 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 35–21 JXST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNMSU 39–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 7–42 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 11–39 JXST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNMSU 14–35 JXST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNMSU 18–32 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 21–28 JXST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–21 JXST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNMSU 32–18 JXST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNMSU 35–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 4–39 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 7–35 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 11–32 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 14–28 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 18–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNMSU 21–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNMSU 25–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNMSU 28–14 JXST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNMSU 32–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNMSU 0–35 JXST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNMSU 4–32 JXST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNMSU 7–28 JXST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNMSU 11–25 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 14–21 JXST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNMSU 18–18 JXST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNMSU 21–14 JXST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNMSU 25–11 JXST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNMSU 28–7 JXST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalJXST +35JXST +21JXST +7NMSU +7NMSU +21margin →