AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
32p
#124Home
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
22p
WKU 75%25% MTSU
Spread
WKU -10.1
Total
54
Moneyline
WKU-304MTSU+304
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenMTSU advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118
WKU +30
WKU run
MTSU +17
MTSU throw
WKU pass rush #101
WKU +37
MTSU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · WKU
MLB · MTSU
56.8
79.4
MTSU +23
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · MTSU
CB1 · WKU
48.1
87.0
WKU +39
over the middle
Tayvion Galloway
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · MTSU
FS · WKU
42.5
71.4
WKU +29
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · MTSU
MLB · WKU
51.1
58.1
WKU +7
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
James Johnson
X · WKU
CB1 · MTSU
57.8
49.4
WKU +8
off the edge· hunting Jr.
Alec Johnson
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · WKU
EDGE · MTSU
23.2
79.4
MTSU +56

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777

Common opponents

7 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Western Kentucky
opponent
Middle Tennessee
home+6.0
Jacksonville State#89
-11.6away
home+11.2
Delaware#102
-1.4home
away+2.5
Liberty#106
-10.1away
home+12.5
Kennesaw State#105
-0.1home
away+16.4
Sam Houston#137
+3.8away
away+13.6
New Mexico State#130
+6.0home
away+0.1
Nevada#120
+1.6home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWKU +10.195% interval: -34 to 13.880% interval: -27.5 to 7.3-27+7WKU wins 75%MTSU wins 25%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WKU 32–25 MTSUMTSU 21–56 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 25–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 28–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 32–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMTSU 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMTSU 49–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMTSU 18–53 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–49 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 25–46 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 28–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 32–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMTSU 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMTSU 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 46–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 14–49 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 18–46 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 21–42 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–39 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 28–35 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMTSU 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMTSU 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 42–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 11–46 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 14–42 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 18–39 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 21–35 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMTSU 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 39–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 7–42 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 11–39 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMTSU 14–35 WKU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMTSU 18–32 WKU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMTSU 21–28 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMTSU 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMTSU 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMTSU 35–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 4–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMTSU 7–35 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMTSU 11–32 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 14–28 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 18–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMTSU 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMTSU 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMTSU 32–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMTSU 0–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 4–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMTSU 7–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMTSU 11–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMTSU 14–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMTSU 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMTSU 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMTSU 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMTSU 28–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWKU +35WKU +21WKU +7MTSU +7MTSU +21margin →