CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 2:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MOST 22.8%77.2% JXST
Projected margin
JXST by 11.5
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
MOST 7 to JXST 30
Win probability
JXST 77.2%

Current team profiles

Missouri State
Jacksonville State

When Missouri State has the ball

Passing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
JXST defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#92
JXST defense
#91
EPA comparison
0.05
#92
0.09
#91
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST defense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST offense
#108
JXST defense
#87
Success rates
39%
#108
42%
#87
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#100
0.05
#62
EPA / play
1.22
#78
1.09
#19
Explosiveness
17%
#106
16%
#77
Havoc

When Jacksonville State has the ball

Passing

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#122
JXST offense
#33
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.36
#33
Pass EPA

Rushing

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#112
JXST offense
#85
EPA comparison
0.15
#112
0.07
#85
Rush EPA

Drive success

JXST offense
Higher-ranked profile
MOST defense
#134
JXST offense
#38
Success rates
50%
#134
47%
#38
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#131
0.18
#54
EPA / play
1.07
#13
1.17
#100
Explosiveness
14%
#95
14%
#56
Havoc

Current key players

Missouri State
QBSkyler Locklear
699 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
73.6126/729
CBJoel Boamah
15 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.9
Coverage
81.2
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
127
Passer rating allowed
54.6
Missed tackles
1
80.950/2969
WRIsaiah Myers
17 rec · 342 yds · 2 TD
80.749/2069
RBRamone Green Jr.
186 yds · 2 TD · 4.8 YPC
76.0152/1044
SJerrick Martin
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.7
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.3185/2969
TECash Pomeroy
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
77.2
Penalties
0
74.648/1017
Availability reports · 3
  • James Rexroat · TEQues. · 2026-10-09

    Rexroat is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

  • Makai Cope · WRQues. · 2026-09-20

    Cope is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Mustangs on Saturday, September 26th.

  • Josh Joyner · RBQues. · 2026-10-09

    Joyner is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Kennesaw State on Wednesday.

Jacksonville State
QBCaden Creel
1112 yds · 9 TD · 4 INT
68.6177/729
WRFranklin Baret Jr.
1 rec · 18 yds · 0 TD
86.421/2069
STy Sims
— tkl · — PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
75.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
0
82.441/2969
LBWalker O'Steen
30 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
80.478/1796
SCaleb Nix
30 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
82.0
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
89
Passer rating allowed
43.5
Missed tackles
3
78.878/2969
LBMac Sanders
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.4
Coverage
77.1
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.5109/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • Andrew Paul · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Paul is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Franklin Baret Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Baret Jr has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Rollie Pinto · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Pinto is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Landon Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • AJ Watkins · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Watkins is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Justus Savage · RBQues. · 2026-10-08

    Savage is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

  • Nabi Hoyt · WRQues. · 2026-10-08

    Hoyt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against FIU on Tuesday, October 13th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MOST
JXST
vs
Offense
73.6
#88 of 138
QB
68.6
#108 of 138
74.7
#75 of 138
RB
73.8
#86 of 138
68.9
#94 of 138
WR
78.1
#17 of 138
74.6
#38 of 138
TE
72.3
#50 of 138
73.1
#27 of 138
OL
67.7
#70 of 138
Defense
66.7
#132 of 138
DL
70.9
#95 of 138
68.4
#118 of 138
LB
78.7
#32 of 138
71.1
#82 of 138
DB
77.3
#13 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Missouri State
opponent
Jacksonville State
A-21.0
WKU#122
+2.8A
A-9.3
FIU#99
+4.8H
A-6.6
DEL#119
+2.2A
H+7.9
SHSU#125
+16.7H
H-3.4
KENN#113
+1.0A
H+0.5
NMSU#120
+4.0A