AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#125Away
Missouri State
0-0 · AVR 30.2
21p
#89Home
Jacksonville State
0-1 · AVR 43.6
35p
MOST 18%82% JXST
Spread
JXST -13.4
Total
56
Moneyline
MOST+456JXST-456
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MOST advantageevenJXST advantage →
MOST throw
MOST WR #45MOST protection #125
JXST +23
MOST run
MOST backs #83
JXST +37
JXST throw
JXST +40
JXST run
JXST backs #119
JXST +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MOST throws
Jmariyae Robinson
vs
Rob Billings IV
X · MOST
CB1 · JXST
76.8
79.4
dead even
off the edge· hunting Creel
Jeremiah Orr
vs
Kellen Lindstrom
LT · JXST
EDGE · MOST
65.3
79.5
MOST +14
when MOST runs
Ramone Green Jr.
vs
Walker O'Steen
RB · MOST
MLB · JXST
61.8
73.0
JXST +11
over the middle
Jeron Askren
vs
Marc Woods
TE · MOST
FS · JXST
59.4
67.8
JXST +8
when JXST throws
Deondre Johnson
vs
Dylan Dixson
X · JXST
CB1 · MOST
71.0
53.2
JXST +18
when JXST runs
Lucas Farrington
vs
Jared Lloyd
RB · JXST
MLB · MOST
49.7
62.0
MOST +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Missouri State
WRJmariyae Robinson
76.828/777
LBJared Lloyd
62.0256/878
RBRamone Green Jr.
61.893/514
TEJeron Askren
59.458/287
LBCooper Roy
55.4383/878
SDylan Dixson
53.2670/1427
Jacksonville State
SRob Billings IV
79.496/1427
CBTre'Quon Fegans
74.5158/1427
LBWalker O'Steen
73.0118/878
LBMorven Joseph
72.1121/878
SCaleb Nix
71.9193/1427
WRDeondre Johnson
71.048/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Missouri State
opponent
Jacksonville State
away-8.8
Florida International#109
+7.2home
away-8.3
Delaware#102
+2.6away
home+6.9
Sam Houston#137
+17.8home
away-16.9
Western Kentucky#75
-6.0away
home-2.0
Kennesaw State#105
+3.9away
home+4.2
New Mexico State#130
+10.1away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKJXST +13.495% interval: -10.5 to 37.380% interval: -4 to 30.8-4+31MOST wins 18%JXST wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ JXST 35–21 MOSTJXST 32–46 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 35–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 39–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 42–35 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 46–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 49–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 53–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 56–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesJXST 60–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesJXST 28–42 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 32–39 MOST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesJXST 35–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 39–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 42–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 46–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJXST 49–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 53–18 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 56–14 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 25–39 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 28–35 MOST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 32–32 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 35–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 39–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 42–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 46–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 49–14 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 53–11 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 21–35 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 25–32 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 28–28 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 32–25 MOST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesJXST 35–21 MOST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesJXST 39–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 42–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 46–11 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 49–7 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 18–32 MOST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesJXST 21–28 MOST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesJXST 25–25 MOST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesJXST 28–21 MOST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesJXST 32–18 MOST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesJXST 35–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 39–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 42–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 46–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 14–28 MOST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesJXST 18–25 MOST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesJXST 21–21 MOST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesJXST 25–18 MOST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesJXST 28–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesJXST 32–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesJXST 35–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesJXST 39–4 MOST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesJXST 42–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 11–25 MOST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesJXST 14–21 MOST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesJXST 18–18 MOST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesJXST 21–14 MOST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesJXST 25–11 MOST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesJXST 28–7 MOST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesJXST 32–4 MOST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesJXST 35–0 MOST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMOST +14PKJXST +14JXST +28JXST +42margin →