CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
The Belt
Forecast win probability
TROY 31.9%68.1% USA
Projected margin
USA by 7.4
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
TROY 11 to USA 26
Win probability
USA 68.1%

Current team profiles

Troy
South Alabama

When Troy has the ball

Passing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#101
USA defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.11
#101
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#45
USA defense
#125
EPA comparison
0.16
#45
0.20
#125
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY offense
#79
USA defense
#137
Success rates
43%
#79
51%
#137
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#78
0.27
#134
EPA / play
1.26
#47
1.36
#119
Explosiveness
17%
#114
17%
#52
Havoc

When South Alabama has the ball

Passing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#71
USA offense
#37
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.34
#37
Pass EPA

Rushing

USA offense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#56
USA offense
#30
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.20
#30
Rush EPA

Drive success

TROY defense
Higher-ranked profile
TROY defense
#64
USA offense
#69
Success rates
40%
#64
44%
#69
Success rate
More metrics
0.07
#73
0.23
#36
EPA / play
1.35
#116
1.33
#23
Explosiveness
17%
#59
13%
#34
Havoc

Current key players

Troy
QBGoose Crowder
822 yds · 7 TD · 4 INT
60.7263/729
SJustin Powe
26 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
78.7
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
118.1
Missed tackles
3
80.952/2969
RBGavin Griffin
259 yds · 0 TD · 4.8 YPC
77.6124/1044
DBDonnie Smith
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
58.0
Coverage
67.2
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
31
Passer rating allowed
100.7
Missed tackles
5
73.3262/2969
SJamarion Keyes
17 tkl · 0 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.5
Coverage
68.9
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
75
Passer rating allowed
94.3
Missed tackles
1
72.9285/2969
LBTJ Thompson
20 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.2
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
72.3282/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jackson Worley · TEout · 2026-10-03

    Worley has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Fabian Rogosch · TEQues. · 2026-10-06

    Rogosch is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Louisiana on Saturday, October 17th.

South Alabama
QBBishop Davenport
450 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
73.0129/729
RBPJ Martin
328 yds · 5 TD · 4.3 YPC
79.985/1044
CBDamyrion Darby
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
42.8
Coverage
79.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
10
Yards allowed
115
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
4
76.1156/2969
SDeon Callins
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
73.6252/2969
LBXavious Anderson Jr.
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.1
Coverage
75.4
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
7
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
73.4242/1796
CBJaylen Moson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
53.1
Coverage
72.8
Targets allowed
24
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
116
Passer rating allowed
70.8
Missed tackles
5
70.0446/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Brian Barnes · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Barnes has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Khatori Marion · WRout · 2026-10-01

    Marion has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Maddox Lynch · TEout · 2026-10-01

    Lynch has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • D. White · WRQues. · 2026-10-09

    White is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Marshall on Tuesday, October 22nd.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TROY
USA
vs
Offense
60.7
#130 of 138
QB
73.0
#90 of 138
76.6
#59 of 138
RB
78.0
#47 of 138
67.0
#121 of 138
WR
68.0
#110 of 138
69.3
#68 of 138
TE
61.4
#109 of 138
61.6
#123 of 138
OL
65.6
#91 of 138
Defense
64.1
#138 of 138
DL
65.2
#135 of 138
69.1
#112 of 138
LB
66.2
#128 of 138
72.0
#71 of 138
DB
69.4
#106 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Troy
opponent
South Alabama
H+21.0
USM#139
+1.7A
A-3.7
ARST#91
+7.0A
A-8.8
UL#92
-4.0A
H+0.4
LT#87
+5.2H
H+14.5
ULM#163
+17.0H