AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
The Belt
#95Away
Troy
0-0 · AVR 41.7
26p
#100Home
South Alabama
0-0 · AVR 39.5
29p
TROY 41%59% USA
Spread
USA -3.2
Total
55
Moneyline
TROY+142USA-142
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TROY advantageevenUSA advantage →
TROY throw
even
TROY run
TROY +6
USA throw
TROY coverage #45TROY pass rush #124
TROY +9
USA run
USA +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when USA throws
Anthony Eager
vs
Jonathan Pennix
X · USA
CB1 · TROY
49.2
83.7
TROY +34
when USA runs
Keenan Phillips
vs
TJ Thompson
RB · USA
MLB · TROY
60.0
68.5
TROY +8
when TROY throws
TJ Lott
vs
Jayvon Henderson
X · TROY
CB1 · USA
51.9
69.9
USA +18
when TROY runs
Jordan Lovett
vs
Seidrion Langston
RB · TROY
MLB · USA
50.3
59.9
USA +10
over the middle
Rod Gibbs
vs
Joe Lott
TE · USA
FS · TROY
43.7
62.8
TROY +19
over the middle
Jackson Worley
vs
Cole Blaylock
TE · TROY
FS · USA
38.1
42.7
USA +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Troy
CBJonathan Pennix
83.758/1427
DBDonnie Smith
78.9102/1427
LBTJ Thompson
68.5169/878
SMarcus Goree Jr.
67.5292/1427
LBLuke Hodge
61.8257/878
WRTJ Lott
51.9264/777
South Alabama
SJayvon Henderson
69.9241/1427
RBKeenan Phillips
60.0110/514
LBSeidrion Langston
59.9293/878
LBTirrell Johnson
56.7359/878
QBBishop Davenport
56.584/308
SDallas Young
56.5573/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Troy
opponent
South Alabama
home+2.6
Southern Miss#93
-1.7away
away-4.4
Louisiana#99
-3.7away
away-0.8
Arkansas State#104
-0.1away
home+14.4
UL Monroe#132
+15.1home
home+2.5
Louisiana Tech#94
+3.1home

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSA +3.295% interval: -20.7 to 27.180% interval: -14.2 to 20.6-14+21TROY wins 41%USA wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USA 28–28 TROYUSA 25–53 TROY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSA 28–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 32–46 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 35–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 39–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 42–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSA 46–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 49–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSA 53–25 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSA 21–49 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 25–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 28–42 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 32–39 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 35–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 39–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 42–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSA 46–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSA 49–21 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 18–46 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 21–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 25–39 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 28–35 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 32–32 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 35–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUSA 39–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSA 42–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUSA 46–18 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 14–42 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 18–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSA 21–35 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 25–32 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 28–28 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 32–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUSA 35–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 39–18 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 42–14 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 11–39 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 14–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 18–32 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 21–28 TROY neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUSA 25–25 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 28–21 TROY neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSA 32–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSA 35–14 TROY neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUSA 39–11 TROY neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSA 7–35 TROY neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSA 11–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 14–28 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 18–25 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 21–21 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 25–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSA 28–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 32–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSA 35–7 TROY neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSA 4–32 TROY neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUSA 7–28 TROY neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSA 11–25 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 14–21 TROY neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSA 18–18 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 21–14 TROY neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSA 25–11 TROY neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSA 28–7 TROY neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSA 32–4 TROY neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalTROY +28TROY +14PKUSA +14USA +28margin →