AVRCFB Model

FCS Predictions

Every FCS-vs-FCS game from a deliberately simple model: score-based strength ratings plus home field. Regular season only. FCS rankings · FBS predictions

Season
2026
Weeks
13
Thu Aug 27 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#55Maine
Coastal Athletic
#50Towson
Coastal Athletic
-4.8spread
Maine 40%60% Towson
Margin (home)
+4.8
Home win prob
60%
80% interval -19 … +29
Thu Aug 27 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#41Stony Brook
Coastal Athletic
-0.5spread
#63Delaware State
MEAC
Stony Brook 51%49% Delaware State
Margin (home)
-0.5
Home win prob
49%
80% interval -24 … +23
Thu Aug 27 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#79Mercyhurst
NEC
#13Youngstown State
MVFC
-21.8spread
Mercyhurst 12%88% Youngstown State
Margin (home)
+21.8
Home win prob
88%
80% interval -2 … +46
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#93Eastern Illinois
OVC
#85Murray State
MVFC
-4.9spread
Eastern Illinois 40%60% Murray State
Margin (home)
+4.9
Home win prob
60%
80% interval -19 … +29
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#26Lafayette
Patriot
-12.5spread
#100Georgetown
Patriot
Lafayette 75%25% Georgetown
Margin (home)
-12.5
Home win prob
25%
80% interval -36 … +11
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#54Gardner-Webb
OVC
#25Austin Peay
UAC
-10.8spread
Gardner-Webb 28%72% Austin Peay
Margin (home)
+10.8
Home win prob
72%
80% interval -13 … +35
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#77Charleston Southern
OVC
#61Lindenwood
OVC
-7.8spread
Charleston Southern 34%66% Lindenwood
Margin (home)
+7.8
Home win prob
66%
80% interval -16 … +32
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#73Chattanooga
Southern
#27West Georgia
UAC
-13.6spread
Chattanooga 23%77% West Georgia
Margin (home)
+13.6
Home win prob
77%
80% interval -10 … +38
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#108Houston Christian
Southland
#6SE Louisiana
Southland
-34.7spread
Houston Christian 3%97% SE Louisiana
Margin (home)
+34.7
Home win prob
97%
80% interval +11 … +59
Thu Aug 27 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#123Mississippi Valley State
SWAC
#62Nicholls
Southland
-28.9spread
Mississippi Valley State 6%94% Nicholls
Margin (home)
+28.9
Home win prob
94%
80% interval +5 … +53
Thu Aug 27 · 11:30 PMprior ratings
#70Central Arkansas
UAC
#48UT Martin
OVC
-8.2spread
Central Arkansas 33%67% UT Martin
Margin (home)
+8.2
Home win prob
67%
80% interval -16 … +32
Fri Aug 28prior ratings
#71Long Island University
NEC
#3North Dakota
MVFC
-26.7spread
Long Island University 8%92% North Dakota
Margin (home)
+26.7
Home win prob
92%
80% interval +3 … +51
Fri Aug 28 · 4:00 AMprior ratings
#20Rhode Island
Coastal Athletic
-14.6spread
#91Merrimack
FCS Independents
Rhode Island 78%22% Merrimack
Margin (home)
-14.6
Home win prob
22%
80% interval -39 … +9
Fri Aug 28 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#53Colgate
Patriot
-8.6spread
#105Fordham
Patriot
Colgate 68%32% Fordham
Margin (home)
-8.6
Home win prob
32%
80% interval -33 … +15
Fri Aug 28 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#44William & Mary
Patriot
#10Villanova
Patriot
-15.9spread
William & Mary 20%80% Villanova
Margin (home)
+15.9
Home win prob
80%
80% interval -8 … +40
Fri Aug 28 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#104Marist
Pioneer
-1.3spread
#112New Haven
NEC
Marist 53%47% New Haven
Margin (home)
-1.3
Home win prob
47%
80% interval -25 … +23
Fri Aug 28 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#33New Hampshire
Coastal Athletic
-13.6spread
#107UAlbany
Coastal Athletic
New Hampshire 77%23% UAlbany
Margin (home)
-13.6
Home win prob
23%
80% interval -38 … +10
Sat Aug 29 · 2:00 AMprior ratings
#52Idaho
Big Sky
#43Cal Poly
Big Sky
-6.1spread
Idaho 37%63% Cal Poly
Margin (home)
+6.1
Home win prob
63%
80% interval -18 … +30
Sat Aug 29 · 4:00 AMprior ratings
#106Robert Morris
NEC
#98Wagner
NEC
-5.8spread
Robert Morris 38%62% Wagner
Margin (home)
+5.8
Home win prob
62%
80% interval -18 … +30
Sat Aug 29 · 4:00 AMprior ratings
#14Abilene Christian
UAC
-3.4spread
#29Lamar
Southland
Abilene Christian 57%43% Lamar
Margin (home)
-3.4
Home win prob
43%
80% interval -27 … +21
Sat Aug 29 · 6:00 PMprior ratings
#51Central Connecticut
NEC
#17South Dakota
MVFC
-13.8spread
Central Connecticut 23%77% South Dakota
Margin (home)
+13.8
Home win prob
77%
80% interval -10 … +38
Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PMprior ratings
#18UC Davis
Big Sky
-22.7spread
#109Portland State
Big Sky
UC Davis 89%11% Portland State
Margin (home)
-22.7
Home win prob
11%
80% interval -47 … +1
Sat Aug 29 · 7:00 PM · neutralprior ratings
#117Southern
SWAC
#21Alabama State
SWAC
-29.3spread
Southern 6%94% Alabama State
Margin (home)
+29.3
Home win prob
94%
80% interval +5 … +53
Sat Aug 29 · 7:30 PMprior ratings
#7Lehigh
Patriot
-13.8spread
#66Holy Cross
Patriot
Lehigh 77%23% Holy Cross
Margin (home)
-13.8
Home win prob
23%
80% interval -38 … +10
Sat Aug 29 · 9:00 PMprior ratings
#67Eastern Washington
Big Sky
#38Northern Arizona
Big Sky
-8.8spread
Eastern Washington 32%68% Northern Arizona
Margin (home)
+8.8
Home win prob
68%
80% interval -15 … +33
Sat Aug 29 · 9:30 PMprior ratings
#83Campbell
Coastal Athletic
#32East Tennessee State
Southern
-14.9spread
Campbell 21%79% East Tennessee State
Margin (home)
+14.9
Home win prob
79%
80% interval -9 … +39
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#88Morgan State
MEAC
-8.5spread
#116North Carolina A&T
Coastal Athletic
Morgan State 68%33% North Carolina A&T
Margin (home)
-8.5
Home win prob
33%
80% interval -32 … +15
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#103Bryant
Coastal Athletic
#96Stonehill
NEC
-5.3spread
Bryant 39%61% Stonehill
Margin (home)
+5.3
Home win prob
61%
80% interval -19 … +29
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#75Southeast Missouri State
OVC
#72Indiana State
MVFC
-4.2spread
Southeast Missouri State 41%59% Indiana State
Margin (home)
+4.2
Home win prob
59%
80% interval -20 … +28
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#101Bucknell
Patriot
#64Richmond
Patriot
-12.9spread
Bucknell 24%76% Richmond
Margin (home)
+12.9
Home win prob
76%
80% interval -11 … +37
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#122VMI
Southern
#28Idaho State
Big Sky
-33.9spread
VMI 3%97% Idaho State
Margin (home)
+33.9
Home win prob
97%
80% interval +10 … +58
Sat Aug 29 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#76The Citadel
Southern
#39Wofford
Southern
-11.9spread
The Citadel 26%74% Wofford
Margin (home)
+11.9
Home win prob
74%
80% interval -12 … +36
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#22Monmouth
Coastal Athletic
#16Tennessee Tech
Southern
-7.2spread
Monmouth 35%65% Tennessee Tech
Margin (home)
+7.2
Home win prob
65%
80% interval -17 … +31
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#45North Carolina Central
MEAC
-6.8spread
#89Texas Southern
SWAC
North Carolina Central 64%36% Texas Southern
Margin (home)
-6.8
Home win prob
36%
80% interval -31 … +17
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#46Eastern Kentucky
UAC
#37Western Carolina
Southern
-5.4spread
Eastern Kentucky 39%61% Western Carolina
Margin (home)
+5.4
Home win prob
61%
80% interval -19 … +29
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PM · neutralprior ratings
#115Samford
Southern
#87North Alabama
UAC
-10.8spread
Samford 28%72% North Alabama
Margin (home)
+10.8
Home win prob
72%
80% interval -13 … +35
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#5Stephen F. Austin
Southland
-14.7spread
#60McNeese
Southland
Stephen F. Austin 78%22% McNeese
Margin (home)
-14.7
Home win prob
22%
80% interval -39 … +9
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#126Stetson
Pioneer
#11South Dakota State
MVFC
-51.9spread
Stetson 0%100% South Dakota State
Margin (home)
+51.9
Home win prob
100%
80% interval +28 … +76
Sat Aug 29 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#80East Texas A&M
Southland
#19Mercer
Southern
-20.1spread
East Texas A&M 14%86% Mercer
Margin (home)
+20.1
Home win prob
86%
80% interval -4 … +44
Sat Aug 29 · 11:30 PM · neutralprior ratings
#114Alabama A&M
SWAC
#97Howard
MEAC
-7.9spread
Alabama A&M 34%66% Howard
Margin (home)
+7.9
Home win prob
66%
80% interval -16 … +32
Sun Aug 30 · 12:30 AMprior ratings
#35Jackson State
SWAC
-16.1spread
#111Tennessee State
OVC
Jackson State 81%19% Tennessee State
Margin (home)
-16.1
Home win prob
19%
80% interval -40 … +8
Sun Aug 30 · 1:00 AMprior ratings
#24Southern Utah
Big Sky
#4Montana
Big Sky
-15.1spread
Southern Utah 21%79% Montana
Margin (home)
+15.1
Home win prob
79%
80% interval -9 … +39
Sun Aug 30 · 1:00 AMprior ratings
#78Weber State
Big Sky
#81Northern Colorado
Big Sky
-2.5spread
Weber State 45%55% Northern Colorado
Margin (home)
+2.5
Home win prob
55%
80% interval -21 … +26
Sun Aug 30 · 1:00 AMprior ratings
#30Prairie View A&M
SWAC
#2Tarleton State
UAC
-21.8spread
Prairie View A&M 12%88% Tarleton State
Margin (home)
+21.8
Home win prob
88%
80% interval -2 … +46
Sun Aug 30 · 2:00 AMprior ratings
#1Montana State
Big Sky
-31.1spread
#86Utah Tech
Big Sky
Montana State 95%5% Utah Tech
Margin (home)
-31.1
Home win prob
5%
80% interval -55 … -7
Thu Sep 3 · 4:00 AMprior ratings
#9Southern Illinois
MVFC
-29.9spread
#115Samford
Southern
Southern Illinois 95%5% Samford
Margin (home)
-29.9
Home win prob
5%
80% interval -54 … -6
Thu Sep 3 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#61Lindenwood
OVC
#41Stony Brook
Coastal Athletic
-7.4spread
Lindenwood 35%65% Stony Brook
Margin (home)
+7.4
Home win prob
65%
80% interval -17 … +31
Sat Sep 5 · 4:00 AMprior ratings
#64Richmond
Patriot
-4.9spread
#97Howard
MEAC
Richmond 60%40% Howard
Margin (home)
-4.9
Home win prob
40%
80% interval -29 … +19
Sat Sep 5 · 4:00 PMprior ratings
#96Stonehill
NEC
-3.2spread
#112New Haven
NEC
Stonehill 57%43% New Haven
Margin (home)
-3.2
Home win prob
43%
80% interval -27 … +21
Sat Sep 5 · 4:30 PMprior ratings
#7Lehigh
Patriot
-22.3spread
#100Georgetown
Patriot
Lehigh 88%12% Georgetown
Margin (home)
-22.3
Home win prob
12%
80% interval -46 … +2
Sat Sep 5 · 5:00 PMprior ratings
#66Holy Cross
Patriot
#53Colgate
Patriot
-5.4spread
Holy Cross 39%61% Colgate
Margin (home)
+5.4
Home win prob
61%
80% interval -19 … +29
Sat Sep 5 · 5:30 PMprior ratings
#54Gardner-Webb
OVC
#39Wofford
Southern
-6.9spread
Gardner-Webb 36%64% Wofford
Margin (home)
+6.9
Home win prob
64%
80% interval -17 … +31
Sat Sep 5 · 6:00 PMprior ratings
#68Sacred Heart
Coastal Athletic
#22Monmouth
Coastal Athletic
-14.6spread
Sacred Heart 22%78% Monmouth
Margin (home)
+14.6
Home win prob
78%
80% interval -9 … +39
Sat Sep 5 · 7:00 PMprior ratings
#59Drake
Pioneer
#4Montana
Big Sky
-23.5spread
Drake 10%90% Montana
Margin (home)
+23.5
Home win prob
90%
80% interval -0 … +47
Sat Sep 5 · 7:30 PMprior ratings
#37Western Carolina
Southern
-6.9spread
#83Campbell
Coastal Athletic
Western Carolina 64%36% Campbell
Margin (home)
-6.9
Home win prob
36%
80% interval -31 … +17
Sat Sep 5 · 8:00 PMprior ratings
#47St. Thomas (MN)
Pioneer
#3North Dakota
MVFC
-21.0spread
St. Thomas (MN) 13%87% North Dakota
Margin (home)
+21.0
Home win prob
87%
80% interval -3 … +45
Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#42Elon
Coastal Athletic
-30.6spread
#125Davidson
Pioneer
Elon 95%5% Davidson
Margin (home)
-30.6
Home win prob
5%
80% interval -55 … -7
Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#63Delaware State
MEAC
#44William & Mary
Patriot
-7.2spread
Delaware State 35%65% William & Mary
Margin (home)
+7.2
Home win prob
65%
80% interval -17 … +31
Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#10Villanova
Patriot
-21.8spread
#101Bucknell
Patriot
Villanova 88%12% Bucknell
Margin (home)
-21.8
Home win prob
12%
80% interval -46 … +2
Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#65Presbyterian
Pioneer
#19Mercer
Southern
-15.9spread
Presbyterian 20%80% Mercer
Margin (home)
+15.9
Home win prob
80%
80% interval -8 … +40
Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PMprior ratings
#16Tennessee Tech
Southern
-12.8spread
#73Chattanooga
Southern
Tennessee Tech 75%25% Chattanooga
Margin (home)
-12.8
Home win prob
25%
80% interval -37 … +11
Sat Sep 5 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#8Illinois State
MVFC
-21.4spread
#99Western Illinois
OVC
Illinois State 88%13% Western Illinois
Margin (home)
-21.4
Home win prob
13%
80% interval -45 … +2
Sat Sep 5 · 11:00 PMprior ratings
#57Northern Iowa
MVFC
#67Eastern Washington
Big Sky
-2.2spread
Northern Iowa 45%55% Eastern Washington
Margin (home)
+2.2
Home win prob
55%
80% interval -22 … +26
Sun Sep 6prior ratings
#17South Dakota
MVFC
-14.1spread
#81Northern Colorado
Big Sky
South Dakota 78%22% Northern Colorado
Margin (home)
-14.1
Home win prob
22%
80% interval -38 … +10
Sun Sep 6prior ratings
#78Weber State
Big Sky
#24Southern Utah
Big Sky
-16.5spread
Weber State 19%81% Southern Utah
Margin (home)
+16.5
Home win prob
81%
80% interval -7 … +40
Sun Sep 6prior ratings
#80East Texas A&M
Southland
#5Stephen F. Austin
Southland
-26.7spread
East Texas A&M 8%92% Stephen F. Austin
Margin (home)
+26.7
Home win prob
92%
80% interval +3 … +51
Sun Sep 6 · 12:30 AMprior ratings
#102Butler
Pioneer
#1Montana State
Big Sky
-41.7spread
Butler 1%99% Montana State
Margin (home)
+41.7
Home win prob
99%
80% interval +18 … +66
Sun Sep 6 · 2:00 AMprior ratings
#18UC Davis
Big Sky
-10.3spread
#69San Diego
Pioneer
UC Davis 71%29% San Diego
Margin (home)
-10.3
Home win prob
29%
80% interval -34 … +14
Sun Sep 6 · 4:00 PMprior ratings
#89Texas Southern
SWAC
#30Prairie View A&M
SWAC
-16.6spread
Texas Southern 19%81% Prairie View A&M
Margin (home)
+16.6
Home win prob
81%
80% interval -7 … +41
Sun Sep 6 · 7:00 PM · neutralprior ratings
#34South Carolina State
MEAC
-20.4spread
#113Florida A&M
SWAC
South Carolina State 86%14% Florida A&M
Margin (home)
-20.4
Home win prob
14%
80% interval -44 … +4