AVRCFB Model

2024 FCS Predictions

Every FCS-vs-FCS game from a deliberately simple model: score-based strength ratings plus home field. Regular season only. FCS rankings · FBS predictions

Season
2024
Graded
686
Winners
72.4%
MAE
12.53
Sat Dec 14 · 2:00 AMhit
#7Idaho
Big Sky
19
#3Montana State
Big Sky
52spread -17.4
Pregame win probability
Idaho 15%85% Montana State
Margin (home)
+17.4
Off by
15.6
80% interval -4 … +39Result +33
Sat Dec 14 · 5:00 PMhit
#13Incarnate Word
Southland
14
#1South Dakota State
MVFC
55spread -25.6
Pregame win probability
Incarnate Word 6%94% South Dakota State
Margin (home)
+25.6
Off by
15.4
80% interval +4 … +47Result +41
Sat Dec 14 · 8:30 PMhit
#14Mercer
Southern
7
#2North Dakota State
MVFC
31spread -22.2
Pregame win probability
Mercer 9%91% North Dakota State
Margin (home)
+22.2
Off by
1.8
80% interval +1 … +44Result +24
Sat Dec 14 · 9:00 PMhit
#6UC Davis
Big Sky
21
#4South Dakota
MVFC
35spread -9.1
Pregame win probability
UC Davis 29%71% South Dakota
Margin (home)
+9.1
Off by
4.9
80% interval -12 … +30Result +14