AVRCFB Model

2022 FCS Predictions

Every FCS-vs-FCS game from a deliberately simple model: score-based strength ratings plus home field. Regular season only. FCS rankings · FBS predictions

Season
2022
Graded
638
Winners
72.1%
MAE
13.14
Sat Dec 10hit
#20Samford
Southern
3
#2North Dakota State
MVFC
24spread -15.3
Pregame win probability
Samford 18%82% North Dakota State
Margin (home)
+15.3
Off by
5.7
80% interval -6 … +37Result +21
Sat Dec 10 · 3:15 AMhit
#11William & Mary
CAA
0
#4Montana State
Big Sky
55spread -5.9
Pregame win probability
William & Mary 36%64% Montana State
Margin (home)
+5.9
Off by
49.1
80% interval -16 … +27Result +55
Sat Dec 10 · 3:30 AMmissed
#3Incarnate Word
Southland
66
#5Sacramento State
Big Sky
63spread -0.9
Pregame win probability
Incarnate Word 48%52% Sacramento State
Margin (home)
+0.9
Off by
3.9
80% interval -21 … +22Result -3
Sat Dec 10 · 5:00 PMhit
#12Holy Cross
Patriot
21
#1South Dakota State
MVFC
41spread -12.7
Pregame win probability
Holy Cross 22%78% South Dakota State
Margin (home)
+12.7
Off by
7.3
80% interval -9 … +34Result +20