AVRCFB Model

2025 FCS Predictions

Every FCS-vs-FCS game from a deliberately simple model: score-based strength ratings plus home field. Regular season only. FCS rankings · FBS predictions

Season
2025
Graded
685
Winners
75.5%
MAE
12.6
Sat Dec 13 · 2:00 AMhit
#7Stephen F. Austin
Southland
28
#2Montana State
Big Sky
44spread -13.7
Pregame win probability
Stephen F. Austin 20%80% Montana State
Margin (home)
+13.7
Off by
2.3
80% interval -8 … +35Result +16
Sat Dec 13 · 5:00 PMmissed
#15Villanova
Coastal Athletic
26
#3Tarleton State
UAC
21spread -11.3
Pregame win probability
Villanova 25%75% Tarleton State
Margin (home)
+11.3
Off by
16.3
80% interval -10 … +33Result -5
Sat Dec 13 · 8:30 PMhit
#5South Dakota
MVFC
22
#6Montana
Big Sky
52spread -5.2
Pregame win probability
South Dakota 38%62% Montana
Margin (home)
+5.2
Off by
24.8
80% interval -16 … +26Result +30
Sat Dec 13 · 10:00 PMmissed
#12Illinois State
MVFC
42
#9UC Davis
Big Sky
31spread -2.2
Pregame win probability
Illinois State 45%55% UC Davis
Margin (home)
+2.2
Off by
13.2
80% interval -19 … +23Result -11